Avient Corp (AVNT)
Avient Corporation provides specialty polymer materials, services, and solutions in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Europe, South America, and Asia. The company is headquartered in Avon Lake, Ohio.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 11.85% per annum.
- AVNT price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $45.60 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.27 (10.34%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 74.54% per annum.
- AVNT price at the close of May 9, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AVNT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 3, 2021
End date: February 23, 2024
a = 4.1312
b = -0.0003
s = 0.1106
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -11.85%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1106) – 1
= 55.64%
March 3, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y456)
= Exp(a + b × X456 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 663 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1312 + -0.0003 × 663 + 2 × 0.1106)
= Exp(4.1233)
= $61.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y456)
= Exp(a + b × X456 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 663 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1312 + -0.0003 × 663 – 2 × 0.1106)
= Exp(3.6809)
= $39.68
February 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,205)
= Exp(a + b × X1,205 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,750 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1312 + -0.0003 × 1,750 + 2 × 0.1106)
= Exp(3.7478)
= $42.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,205)
= Exp(a + b × X1,205 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,750 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1312 + -0.0003 × 1,750 – 2 × 0.1106)
= Exp(3.3054)
= $27.26
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 11.85% per annum.
- AVNT price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $45.60 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.27 (10.34%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 5, 2023
End date: May 9, 2024
a = 1.0075
b = 0.0015
s = 0.0463
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 74.54%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0463) – 1
= 20.36%
October 5, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,109)
= Exp(a + b × X1,109 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,609 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0075 + 0.0015 × 1,609 + 2 × 0.0463)
= Exp(3.5556)
= $35.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,109)
= Exp(a + b × X1,109 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,609 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0075 + 0.0015 × 1,609 – 2 × 0.0463)
= Exp(3.3702)
= $29.08
May 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0075 + 0.0015 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0463)
= Exp(3.8867)
= $48.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0075 + 0.0015 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0463)
= Exp(3.7014)
= $40.50
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 74.54% per annum.
- AVNT price at the close of May 9, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.