Celanese Corporation (CE)
Celanese Corporation is a Fortune 500 global technology and specialty materials company headquartered in Irving, Texas, United States.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 56.00% per annum.
- CE price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $161.42 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 39.12% per annum.
- CE price at the close of May 9, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 13, 2023
End date: May 9, 2024
a = 2.8769
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0515
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 56.00%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0515) – 1
= 22.85%
March 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y966)
= Exp(a + b × X966 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,403 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8769 + 0.0012 × 1,403 + 2 × 0.0515)
= Exp(4.6892)
= $108.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y966)
= Exp(a + b × X966 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,403 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8769 + 0.0012 × 1,403 – 2 × 0.0515)
= Exp(4.4834)
= $88.54
May 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8769 + 0.0012 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0515)
= Exp(5.2046)
= $182.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8769 + 0.0012 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0515)
= Exp(4.9988)
= $148.23
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 56.00% per annum.
- CE price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $161.42 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 18, 2024
End date: May 9, 2024
a = 7.5250
b = -0.0014
s = 0.0282
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -39.12%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0282) – 1
= 11.94%
March 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,221)
= Exp(a + b × X1,221 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,774 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5250 + -0.0014 × 1,774 + 2 × 0.0282)
= Exp(5.1696)
= $175.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,221)
= Exp(a + b × X1,221 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,774 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5250 + -0.0014 × 1,774 – 2 × 0.0282)
= Exp(5.0569)
= $157.10
May 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5250 + -0.0014 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0282)
= Exp(5.0989)
= $163.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5250 + -0.0014 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0282)
= Exp(4.9862)
= $146.38
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 39.12% per annum.
- CE price at the close of May 9, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.