Celanese Corporation (CE)
Celanese Corporation is a Fortune 500 global technology and specialty materials company headquartered in Irving, Texas, United States.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 39.16% per annum.
- CE price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $136.90 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $8.36 (5.75%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 51.25% per annum.
- CE price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 16, 2022
End date: June 7, 2024
a = 3.4670
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0708
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 39.16%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0708) – 1
= 32.73%
September 16, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y792)
= Exp(a + b × X792 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,148 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4670 + 0.0009 × 1,148 + 2 × 0.0708)
= Exp(4.6478)
= $104.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y792)
= Exp(a + b × X792 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,148 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4670 + 0.0009 × 1,148 – 2 × 0.0708)
= Exp(4.3647)
= $78.63
June 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,225)
= Exp(a + b × X1,225 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,778 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4670 + 0.0009 × 1,778 + 2 × 0.0708)
= Exp(5.2182)
= $184.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,225)
= Exp(a + b × X1,225 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,778 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4670 + 0.0009 × 1,778 – 2 × 0.0708)
= Exp(4.9351)
= $139.08
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 39.16% per annum.
- CE price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $136.90 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $8.36 (5.75%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 18, 2024
End date: July 11, 2024
a = 8.4745
b = -0.0020
s = 0.0290
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0020) – 1
= -51.25%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0290) – 1
= 12.30%
March 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,168)
= Exp(a + b × X1,168 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,697 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4745 + -0.0020 × 1,697 + 2 × 0.0290)
= Exp(5.1924)
= $179.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,168)
= Exp(a + b × X1,168 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,697 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4745 + -0.0020 × 1,697 – 2 × 0.0290)
= Exp(5.0764)
= $160.20
July 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4745 + -0.0020 × 1,812 + 2 × 0.0290)
= Exp(4.9661)
= $143.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4745 + -0.0020 × 1,812 – 2 × 0.0290)
= Exp(4.8501)
= $127.75
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 51.25% per annum.
- CE price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.