Ingevity Corp (NGVT)
Ingevity Corporation manufactures and sells specialty chemicals and activated carbon materials in North America, Asia-Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and South America. The company is headquartered in North Charleston, South Carolina.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 47.05% per annum.
- NGVT price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $54.00 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $12.98 (31.65%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 46.09% per annum.
- NGVT price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NGVT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 3, 2022
End date: February 7, 2024
a = 6.6747
b = -0.0017
s = 0.1102
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0017) – 1
= -47.05%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1102) – 1
= 55.39%
November 3, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y880)
= Exp(a + b × X880 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,274 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6747 + -0.0017 × 1,274 + 2 × 0.1102)
= Exp(4.6757)
= $107.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y880)
= Exp(a + b × X880 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,274 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6747 + -0.0017 × 1,274 – 2 × 0.1102)
= Exp(4.2349)
= $69.05
February 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,195)
= Exp(a + b × X1,195 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,735 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6747 + -0.0017 × 1,735 + 2 × 0.1102)
= Exp(3.8726)
= $48.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,195)
= Exp(a + b × X1,195 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,735 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6747 + -0.0017 × 1,735 – 2 × 0.1102)
= Exp(3.4318)
= $30.93
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 47.05% per annum.
- NGVT price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $54.00 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $12.98 (31.65%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 5, 2023
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 2.0001
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0503
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 46.09%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0503) – 1
= 22.29%
October 5, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,110)
= Exp(a + b × X1,110 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,610 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0001 + 0.0010 × 1,610 + 2 × 0.0503)
= Exp(3.7728)
= $43.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,110)
= Exp(a + b × X1,110 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,610 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0001 + 0.0010 × 1,610 – 2 × 0.0503)
= Exp(3.5716)
= $35.57
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0001 + 0.0010 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0503)
= Exp(3.9971)
= $54.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0001 + 0.0010 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0503)
= Exp(3.7959)
= $44.52
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 46.09% per annum.
- NGVT price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.