Balchem Corporation (BCPC)
Balchem Corporation (BCPC) is a leading manufacturer and marketer of specialized ingredients and performance products that cater to a diverse range of sectors, including nutrition, food, pharmaceuticals, animal health, medical device sterilization, plant nutrition, and industrial applications. Headquartered in New Hampton, New York, Balchem leverages its innovation and expertise to deliver high-quality solutions that meet the evolving needs of its global clientele. With a strong commitment to sustainability and continuous improvement, the company is well-positioned for long-term growth in the specialty chemicals market.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.79% per annum.
- BCPC price at the close of October 17, 2025 was $147.59 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 64.07% per annum.
- BCPC price at the close of October 17, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.52 (1.04%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BCPC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 16, 2024
End date: October 17, 2025
a = 5.5514
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0361
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -9.79%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0361) – 1
= 15.54%
July 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y939)
= Exp(a + b × X939 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,366 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5514 + -0.0003 × 1,366 + 2 × 0.0361)
= Exp(5.2382)
= $188.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y939)
= Exp(a + b × X939 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,366 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5514 + -0.0003 × 1,366 – 2 × 0.0361)
= Exp(5.0937)
= $163.00
October 17, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5514 + -0.0003 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0361)
= Exp(5.1089)
= $165.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5514 + -0.0003 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0361)
= Exp(4.9645)
= $143.24
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.79% per annum.
- BCPC price at the close of October 17, 2025 was $147.59 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 22, 2025
End date: October 17, 2025
a = 10.0685
b = -0.0028
s = 0.0152
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0028) – 1
= -64.07%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0152) – 1
= 6.25%
August 22, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,216)
= Exp(a + b × X1,216 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,768 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.0685 + -0.0028 × 1,768 + 2 × 0.0152)
= Exp(5.1411)
= $170.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,216)
= Exp(a + b × X1,216 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,768 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.0685 + -0.0028 × 1,768 – 2 × 0.0152)
= Exp(5.0805)
= $160.86
October 17, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.0685 + -0.0028 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0152)
= Exp(4.9841)
= $146.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.0685 + -0.0028 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0152)
= Exp(4.9235)
= $137.48
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 64.07% per annum.
- BCPC price at the close of October 17, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.52 (1.04%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.