Balchem Corporation (BCPC)
Balchem Corporation develops, manufactures, and markets specialty ingredients and performance products for the nutritional, food, pharmaceutical, animal health, medical device sterilization, plant nutrition, and industrial markets in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in New Hampton, New York.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.18% per annum.
- BCPC price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $155.02 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $12.88 (9.06%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 7.78% per annum.
- BCPC price at the close of May 9, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BCPC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 30, 2021
End date: December 12, 2023
a = 5.0233
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0735
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -4.18%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0735) – 1
= 34.19%
April 30, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y497)
= Exp(a + b × X497 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 721 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0233 + -0.0001 × 721 + 2 × 0.0735)
= Exp(5.0860)
= $161.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y497)
= Exp(a + b × X497 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 721 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0233 + -0.0001 × 721 – 2 × 0.0735)
= Exp(4.7919)
= $120.53
December 12, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,156)
= Exp(a + b × X1,156 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,677 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0233 + -0.0001 × 1,677 + 2 × 0.0735)
= Exp(4.9743)
= $144.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,156)
= Exp(a + b × X1,156 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,677 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0233 + -0.0001 × 1,677 – 2 × 0.0735)
= Exp(4.6802)
= $107.79
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.18% per annum.
- BCPC price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $155.02 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $12.88 (9.06%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 22, 2022
End date: May 9, 2024
a = 4.5779
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0609
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 7.78%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0609) – 1
= 27.56%
April 22, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y744)
= Exp(a + b × X744 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,078 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5779 + 0.0002 × 1,078 + 2 × 0.0609)
= Exp(4.9208)
= $137.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y744)
= Exp(a + b × X744 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,078 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5779 + 0.0002 × 1,078 – 2 × 0.0609)
= Exp(4.6774)
= $107.49
May 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5779 + 0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0609)
= Exp(5.0743)
= $159.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5779 + 0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0609)
= Exp(4.8309)
= $125.32
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 7.78% per annum.
- BCPC price at the close of May 9, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.