Stock Price Trends

Element Solutions Inc (ESI)

Element Solutions Inc produces and sells specialty chemicals in the United States, China, and internationally. The company is headquartered in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 115.86% per annum.
  • ESI price at the close of August 26, 2025 was $25.67 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 24.12% per annum.
  • ESI price at the close of August 26, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ESI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: April 4, 2025
End date: August 26, 2025

a = -0.5983

b = 0.0021

s = 0.0398

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0021) – 1
= 115.86%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0398) – 1
= 17.25%

April 4, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,156)
= Exp(a + b × X1,156 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,681 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.5983 + 0.0021 × 1,681 + 2 × 0.0398)
= Exp(3.0251)
= $20.60

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,156)
= Exp(a + b × X1,156 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,681 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.5983 + 0.0021 × 1,681 – 2 × 0.0398)
= Exp(2.8659)
= $17.57

August 26, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.5983 + 0.0021 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0398)
= Exp(3.3287)
= $27.90

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.5983 + 0.0021 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0398)
= Exp(3.1695)
= $23.80

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 115.86% per annum.
  • ESI price at the close of August 26, 2025 was $25.67 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: July 2, 2025
End date: August 26, 2025

a = 2.1292

b = 0.0006

s = 0.0290

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 24.12%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0290) – 1
= 12.29%

July 2, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,216)
= Exp(a + b × X1,216 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,770 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1292 + 0.0006 × 1,770 + 2 × 0.0290)
= Exp(3.2351)
= $25.41

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,216)
= Exp(a + b × X1,216 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,770 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1292 + 0.0006 × 1,770 – 2 × 0.0290)
= Exp(3.1193)
= $22.63

August 26, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1292 + 0.0006 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0290)
= Exp(3.2677)
= $26.25

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1292 + 0.0006 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0290)
= Exp(3.1518)
= $23.38

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 24.12% per annum.
  • ESI price at the close of August 26, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.