Quaker Chemical Corporation (KWR)
Quaker Chemical Corporation develops, produces and markets a variety of specialty chemicals formulated for a wide range of heavy manufacturing and industrial applications. The company is headquartered in Conshohocken, Pennsylvania.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 27.34% per annum.
- KWR price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $182.37 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $75.19 (70.15%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 7.97% per annum.
- KWR price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KWR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 6, 2020
End date: November 4, 2022
a = 6.0485
b = -0.0009
s = 0.1111
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -27.34%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1111) – 1
= 55.96%
November 6, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y324)
= Exp(a + b × X324 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 466 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0485 + -0.0009 × 466 + 2 × 0.1111)
= Exp(5.8629)
= $351.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y324)
= Exp(a + b × X324 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 466 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0485 + -0.0009 × 466 – 2 × 0.1111)
= Exp(5.4185)
= $225.54
November 4, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y826)
= Exp(a + b × X826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,194 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0485 + -0.0009 × 1,194 + 2 × 0.1111)
= Exp(5.2258)
= $186.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y826)
= Exp(a + b × X826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,194 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0485 + -0.0009 × 1,194 – 2 × 0.1111)
= Exp(4.7814)
= $119.27
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 27.34% per annum.
- KWR price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $182.37 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $75.19 (70.15%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 25, 2022
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 4.8751
b = 0.0002
s = 0.1053
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 7.97%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1053) – 1
= 52.35%
February 25, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y651)
= Exp(a + b × X651 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 942 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8751 + 0.0002 × 942 + 2 × 0.1053)
= Exp(5.2834)
= $197.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y651)
= Exp(a + b × X651 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 942 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8751 + 0.0002 × 942 – 2 × 0.1053)
= Exp(4.8624)
= $129.34
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8751 + 0.0002 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1053)
= Exp(5.4687)
= $237.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8751 + 0.0002 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1053)
= Exp(5.0477)
= $155.66
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 7.97% per annum.
- KWR price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.