Quaker Chemical Corporation (KWR)
Quaker Chemical Corporation develops, produces and markets a variety of specialty chemicals formulated for a wide range of heavy manufacturing and industrial applications. The company is headquartered in Conshohocken, Pennsylvania.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 27.47% per annum.
- KWR price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $189.81 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $75.30 (65.76%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 10.36% per annum.
- KWR price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KWR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 9, 2020
End date: November 4, 2022
a = 6.1269
b = -0.0009
s = 0.1104
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -27.47%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1104) – 1
= 55.52%
November 9, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y380)
= Exp(a + b × X380 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 550 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1269 + -0.0009 × 550 + 2 × 0.1104)
= Exp(5.8637)
= $352.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y380)
= Exp(a + b × X380 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 550 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1269 + -0.0009 × 550 – 2 × 0.1104)
= Exp(5.4221)
= $226.35
November 4, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y881)
= Exp(a + b × X881 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,275 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1269 + -0.0009 × 1,275 + 2 × 0.1104)
= Exp(5.2256)
= $185.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y881)
= Exp(a + b × X881 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,275 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1269 + -0.0009 × 1,275 – 2 × 0.1104)
= Exp(4.7840)
= $119.58
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 27.47% per annum.
- KWR price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $189.81 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $75.30 (65.76%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 28, 2022
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 4.7817
b = 0.0003
s = 0.1058
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 10.36%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1058) – 1
= 52.66%
February 28, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y707)
= Exp(a + b × X707 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,026 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7817 + 0.0003 × 1,026 + 2 × 0.1058)
= Exp(5.2702)
= $194.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y707)
= Exp(a + b × X707 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,026 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7817 + 0.0003 × 1,026 – 2 × 0.1058)
= Exp(4.8472)
= $127.38
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7817 + 0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1058)
= Exp(5.4862)
= $241.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7817 + 0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1058)
= Exp(5.0631)
= $158.09
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 10.36% per annum.
- KWR price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.