H B Fuller Company (FUL)
HB Fuller Company formulates, manufactures and markets adhesives, sealants, coatings, polymers, tapes, encapsulants, additives and other specialty chemicals worldwide. The company is headquartered in Saint Paul, Minnesota.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 2.03% per annum.
- FUL price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $79.35 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.10 (0.12%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 24.49% per annum.
- FUL price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FUL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 25, 2021
End date: November 13, 2023
a = 4.1387
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0667
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 2.03%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0667) – 1
= 30.55%
March 25, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y473)
= Exp(a + b × X473 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 686 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1387 + 0.0001 × 686 + 2 × 0.0667)
= Exp(4.3098)
= $74.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y473)
= Exp(a + b × X473 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 686 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1387 + 0.0001 × 686 – 2 × 0.0667)
= Exp(4.0432)
= $57.01
November 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,137)
= Exp(a + b × X1,137 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,649 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1387 + 0.0001 × 1,649 + 2 × 0.0667)
= Exp(4.3629)
= $78.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,137)
= Exp(a + b × X1,137 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,649 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1387 + 0.0001 × 1,649 – 2 × 0.0667)
= Exp(4.0963)
= $60.12
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 2.03% per annum.
- FUL price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $79.35 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.10 (0.12%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 10, 2023
End date: April 11, 2024
a = 3.3050
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0408
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 24.49%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0408) – 1
= 17.71%
March 10, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y966)
= Exp(a + b × X966 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,401 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3050 + 0.0006 × 1,401 + 2 × 0.0408)
= Exp(4.2274)
= $68.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y966)
= Exp(a + b × X966 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,401 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3050 + 0.0006 × 1,401 – 2 × 0.0408)
= Exp(4.0644)
= $58.23
April 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3050 + 0.0006 × 1,799 + 2 × 0.0408)
= Exp(4.4663)
= $87.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3050 + 0.0006 × 1,799 – 2 × 0.0408)
= Exp(4.3032)
= $73.94
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 24.49% per annum.
- FUL price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.