Stock Price Trends

NewMarket Corporation (NEU)

NewMarket Corporation (NEU) is a leading player in the petroleum additives industry, specializing in the production and marketing of performance-enhancing products for fuel and lubricant applications. Based in Richmond, Virginia, the company benefits from a robust market position and a diverse customer base across various sectors, including automotive, industrial, and manufacturing. With a commitment to innovation and sustainability, NewMarket focuses on developing advanced solutions that improve product performance and environmental compliance, positioning itself for continued growth in a dynamic global market.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 118.97% per annum.
  • NEU price at the close of November 12, 2025 was $786.78 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $73.90 (8.59%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 36.70% per annum.
  • NEU price at the close of November 12, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NEU price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 2, 2025
End date: October 8, 2025

a = 2.9059

b = 0.0021

s = 0.0335

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0021) – 1
= 118.97%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0335) – 1
= 14.35%

January 2, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,038)
= Exp(a + b × X1,038 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,511 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9059 + 0.0021 × 1,511 + 2 × 0.0335)
= Exp(6.2176)
= $501.49

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,038)
= Exp(a + b × X1,038 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,511 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9059 + 0.0021 × 1,511 – 2 × 0.0335)
= Exp(6.0835)
= $438.54

October 8, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,229)
= Exp(a + b × X1,229 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,790 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9059 + 0.0021 × 1,790 + 2 × 0.0335)
= Exp(6.8167)
= $912.95

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,229)
= Exp(a + b × X1,229 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,790 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9059 + 0.0021 × 1,790 – 2 × 0.0335)
= Exp(6.6826)
= $798.36

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 118.97% per annum.
  • NEU price at the close of November 12, 2025 was $786.78 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $73.90 (8.59%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: August 26, 2025
End date: November 12, 2025

a = 8.9247

b = -0.0013

s = 0.0301

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -36.70%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0301) – 1
= 12.82%

August 26, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,199)
= Exp(a + b × X1,199 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,747 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9247 + -0.0013 × 1,747 + 2 × 0.0301)
= Exp(6.7959)
= $894.19

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,199)
= Exp(a + b × X1,199 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,747 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9247 + -0.0013 × 1,747 – 2 × 0.0301)
= Exp(6.6753)
= $792.61

November 12, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9247 + -0.0013 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0301)
= Exp(6.6982)
= $810.93

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9247 + -0.0013 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0301)
= Exp(6.5776)
= $718.81

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 36.70% per annum.
  • NEU price at the close of November 12, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.