Stock Price Trends

NewMarket Corporation (NEU)

NewMarket Corporation participates in the petroleum additives business. The company is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 39.57% per annum.
  • NEU price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $598.81 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $19.00 (3.07%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 6.58% per annum.
  • NEU price at the close of April 29, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $27.41 (4.80%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NEU price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: February 3, 2022
End date: September 19, 2024

a = 4.9528

b = 0.0009

s = 0.0968

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 39.57%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0968) – 1
= 47.28%

February 3, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y445)
= Exp(a + b × X445 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 644 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9528 + 0.0009 × 644 + 2 × 0.0968)
= Exp(5.7346)
= $309.40

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y445)
= Exp(a + b × X445 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 644 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9528 + 0.0009 × 644 – 2 × 0.0968)
= Exp(5.3475)
= $210.08

September 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,104)
= Exp(a + b × X1,104 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,603 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9528 + 0.0009 × 1,603 + 2 × 0.0968)
= Exp(6.6106)
= $742.91

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,104)
= Exp(a + b × X1,104 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,603 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9528 + 0.0009 × 1,603 – 2 × 0.0968)
= Exp(6.2234)
= $504.42

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 39.57% per annum.
  • NEU price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $598.81 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $19.00 (3.07%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: December 7, 2023
End date: April 10, 2025

a = 6.5911

b = -0.0002

s = 0.0487

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -6.58%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0487) – 1
= 21.48%

December 7, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y908)
= Exp(a + b × X908 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,316 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5911 + -0.0002 × 1,316 + 2 × 0.0487)
= Exp(6.4430)
= $628.29

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y908)
= Exp(a + b × X908 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,316 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5911 + -0.0002 × 1,316 – 2 × 0.0487)
= Exp(6.2484)
= $517.18

April 10, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5911 + -0.0002 × 1,806 + 2 × 0.0487)
= Exp(6.3516)
= $573.43

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5911 + -0.0002 × 1,806 – 2 × 0.0487)
= Exp(6.1570)
= $472.03

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 6.58% per annum.
  • NEU price at the close of April 29, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $27.41 (4.80%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.