NewMarket Corporation (NEU)
NewMarket Corporation participates in the petroleum additives business. The company is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 39.57% per annum.
- NEU price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $598.81 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $19.00 (3.07%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 6.58% per annum.
- NEU price at the close of April 29, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $27.41 (4.80%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NEU price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 3, 2022
End date: September 19, 2024
a = 4.9528
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0968
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 39.57%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0968) – 1
= 47.28%
February 3, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y445)
= Exp(a + b × X445 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 644 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9528 + 0.0009 × 644 + 2 × 0.0968)
= Exp(5.7346)
= $309.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y445)
= Exp(a + b × X445 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 644 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9528 + 0.0009 × 644 – 2 × 0.0968)
= Exp(5.3475)
= $210.08
September 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,104)
= Exp(a + b × X1,104 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,603 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9528 + 0.0009 × 1,603 + 2 × 0.0968)
= Exp(6.6106)
= $742.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,104)
= Exp(a + b × X1,104 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,603 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9528 + 0.0009 × 1,603 – 2 × 0.0968)
= Exp(6.2234)
= $504.42
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 39.57% per annum.
- NEU price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $598.81 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $19.00 (3.07%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 7, 2023
End date: April 10, 2025
a = 6.5911
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0487
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -6.58%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0487) – 1
= 21.48%
December 7, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y908)
= Exp(a + b × X908 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,316 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5911 + -0.0002 × 1,316 + 2 × 0.0487)
= Exp(6.4430)
= $628.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y908)
= Exp(a + b × X908 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,316 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5911 + -0.0002 × 1,316 – 2 × 0.0487)
= Exp(6.2484)
= $517.18
April 10, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5911 + -0.0002 × 1,806 + 2 × 0.0487)
= Exp(6.3516)
= $573.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5911 + -0.0002 × 1,806 – 2 × 0.0487)
= Exp(6.1570)
= $472.03
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 6.58% per annum.
- NEU price at the close of April 29, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $27.41 (4.80%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.