NewMarket Corporation (NEU)
NewMarket Corporation participates in the petroleum additives business. The company is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 61.69% per annum.
- NEU price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $561.87 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $68.00 (10.80%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 46.15% per annum.
- NEU price at the close of July 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $44.83 (8.67%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NEU price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 13, 2022
End date: April 24, 2024
a = 4.1473
b = 0.0013
s = 0.0515
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 61.69%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0515) – 1
= 22.86%
June 13, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y725)
= Exp(a + b × X725 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,050 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1473 + 0.0013 × 1,050 + 2 × 0.0515)
= Exp(5.6325)
= $279.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y725)
= Exp(a + b × X725 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,050 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1473 + 0.0013 × 1,050 – 2 × 0.0515)
= Exp(5.4266)
= $227.38
April 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,193)
= Exp(a + b × X1,193 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,731 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1473 + 0.0013 × 1,731 + 2 × 0.0515)
= Exp(6.5290)
= $684.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,193)
= Exp(a + b × X1,193 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,731 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1473 + 0.0013 × 1,731 – 2 × 0.0515)
= Exp(6.3231)
= $557.29
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 61.69% per annum.
- NEU price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $561.87 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $68.00 (10.80%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 20, 2024
End date: July 10, 2024
a = 9.2877
b = -0.0017
s = 0.0269
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0017) – 1
= -46.15%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0269) – 1
= 11.35%
February 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,148)
= Exp(a + b × X1,148 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,667 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.2877 + -0.0017 × 1,667 + 2 × 0.0269)
= Exp(6.5144)
= $674.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,148)
= Exp(a + b × X1,148 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,667 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.2877 + -0.0017 × 1,667 – 2 × 0.0269)
= Exp(6.4068)
= $605.98
July 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,808 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.2877 + -0.0017 × 1,808 + 2 × 0.0269)
= Exp(6.2753)
= $531.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,808 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.2877 + -0.0017 × 1,808 – 2 × 0.0269)
= Exp(6.1677)
= $477.10
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 46.15% per annum.
- NEU price at the close of July 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $44.83 (8.67%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.