NewMarket Corporation (NEU)
NewMarket Corporation participates in the petroleum additives business. The company is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 69.37% per annum.
- NEU price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $562.45 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $43.85 (7.23%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 54.44% per annum.
- NEU price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NEU price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 22, 2022
End date: April 15, 2024
a = 3.8449
b = 0.0014
s = 0.0368
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 69.37%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0368) – 1
= 15.84%
August 22, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y828)
= Exp(a + b × X828 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,201 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8449 + 0.0014 × 1,201 + 2 × 0.0368)
= Exp(5.6522)
= $284.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y828)
= Exp(a + b × X828 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,201 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8449 + 0.0014 × 1,201 – 2 × 0.0368)
= Exp(5.5051)
= $245.95
April 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,803 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8449 + 0.0014 × 1,803 + 2 × 0.0368)
= Exp(6.5212)
= $679.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,803 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8449 + 0.0014 × 1,803 – 2 × 0.0368)
= Exp(6.3742)
= $586.50
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 69.37% per annum.
- NEU price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $562.45 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $43.85 (7.23%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 23, 2024
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 10.2509
b = -0.0022
s = 0.0317
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0022) – 1
= -54.44%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0317) – 1
= 13.53%
February 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,206)
= Exp(a + b × X1,206 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,751 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2509 + -0.0022 × 1,751 + 2 × 0.0317)
= Exp(6.5432)
= $694.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,206)
= Exp(a + b × X1,206 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,751 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2509 + -0.0022 × 1,751 – 2 × 0.0317)
= Exp(6.4163)
= $611.73
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2509 + -0.0022 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0317)
= Exp(6.3817)
= $590.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2509 + -0.0022 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0317)
= Exp(6.2548)
= $520.49
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 54.44% per annum.
- NEU price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.