Stock Price Trends

NewMarket Corporation (NEU)

NewMarket Corporation (NEU) is a leading player in the petroleum additives industry, specializing in the production and marketing of performance-enhancing products for fuel and lubricant applications. Based in Richmond, Virginia, the company benefits from a robust market position and a diverse customer base across various sectors, including automotive, industrial, and manufacturing. With a commitment to innovation and sustainability, NewMarket focuses on developing advanced solutions that improve product performance and environmental compliance, positioning itself for continued growth in a dynamic global market.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 41.18% per annum.
  • NEU price at the close of February 24, 2026 was $619.79 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 98.26% per annum.
  • NEU price at the close of February 24, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NEU price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: August 26, 2025
End date: February 3, 2026

a = 9.1315

b = -0.0015

s = 0.0315

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0015) – 1
= -41.18%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0315) – 1
= 13.41%

August 26, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,130)
= Exp(a + b × X1,130 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,643 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.1315 + -0.0015 × 1,643 + 2 × 0.0315)
= Exp(6.8056)
= $902.90

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,130)
= Exp(a + b × X1,130 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,643 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.1315 + -0.0015 × 1,643 – 2 × 0.0315)
= Exp(6.6797)
= $796.12

February 3, 2026 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,804 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.1315 + -0.0015 × 1,804 + 2 × 0.0315)
= Exp(6.5715)
= $714.46

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,804 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.1315 + -0.0015 × 1,804 – 2 × 0.0315)
= Exp(6.4457)
= $629.96

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 41.18% per annum.
  • NEU price at the close of February 24, 2026 was $619.79 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 3, 2026
End date: February 23, 2026

a = 26.6157

b = -0.0111

s = 0.0522

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0111) – 1
= -98.26%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0522) – 1
= 23.20%

February 3, 2026 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,804 + 2 × s)
= Exp(26.6157 + -0.0111 × 1,804 + 2 × 0.0522)
= Exp(6.6903)
= $804.54

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,804 – 2 × s)
= Exp(26.6157 + -0.0111 × 1,804 – 2 × 0.0522)
= Exp(6.4816)
= $653.04

February 23, 2026 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(26.6157 + -0.0111 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0522)
= Exp(6.4682)
= $644.33

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(26.6157 + -0.0111 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0522)
= Exp(6.2596)
= $523.00

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 98.26% per annum.
  • NEU price at the close of February 24, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.