Axalta Coating Systems Ltd (AXTA)
Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. manufactures, markets and distributes high performance coating systems in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia Pacific and Latin America. The company is headquartered in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 16.91% per annum.
- AXTA price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $36.21 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 40.87% per annum.
- AXTA price at the close of May 9, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AXTA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 4, 2022
End date: May 9, 2024
a = 2.7270
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0749
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 16.91%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0749) – 1
= 34.95%
March 4, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y710)
= Exp(a + b × X710 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,029 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7270 + 0.0004 × 1,029 + 2 × 0.0749)
= Exp(3.3172)
= $27.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y710)
= Exp(a + b × X710 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,029 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7270 + 0.0004 × 1,029 – 2 × 0.0749)
= Exp(3.0174)
= $20.44
May 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7270 + 0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0749)
= Exp(3.6583)
= $38.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7270 + 0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0749)
= Exp(3.3585)
= $28.75
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 16.91% per annum.
- AXTA price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $36.21 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 15, 2023
End date: May 9, 2024
a = 1.8368
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0561
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 40.87%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0561) – 1
= 25.15%
August 15, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,073)
= Exp(a + b × X1,073 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,558 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8368 + 0.0009 × 1,558 + 2 × 0.0561)
= Exp(3.4116)
= $30.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,073)
= Exp(a + b × X1,073 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,558 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8368 + 0.0009 × 1,558 – 2 × 0.0561)
= Exp(3.1872)
= $24.22
May 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8368 + 0.0009 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0561)
= Exp(3.6631)
= $38.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8368 + 0.0009 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0561)
= Exp(3.4388)
= $31.15
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 40.87% per annum.
- AXTA price at the close of May 9, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.