Axalta Coating Systems Ltd (AXTA)
Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. is a leading global manufacturer of high-performance coating systems, specializing in innovative solutions for a diverse range of industries including automotive, industrial, and architectural applications. Headquartered in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Axalta operates across North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia Pacific, and Latin America, leveraging its extensive technical expertise and commitment to sustainability. With a strong portfolio of well-known brands, the company is well-positioned to capitalize on growth opportunities in the coatings market while continuing to enhance its product offerings and customer service capabilities.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 15.59% per annum.
- AXTA price at the close of March 10, 2026 was $29.09 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 84.82% per annum.
- AXTA price at the close of March 10, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $4.75 (14.03%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AXTA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 2, 2024
End date: December 15, 2025
a = 4.1728
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0643
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -15.59%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0643) – 1
= 29.35%
May 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y791)
= Exp(a + b × X791 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,148 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1728 + -0.0005 × 1,148 + 2 × 0.0643)
= Exp(3.7686)
= $43.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y791)
= Exp(a + b × X791 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,148 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1728 + -0.0005 × 1,148 – 2 × 0.0643)
= Exp(3.5112)
= $33.49
December 15, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,197)
= Exp(a + b × X1,197 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,740 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1728 + -0.0005 × 1,740 + 2 × 0.0643)
= Exp(3.4938)
= $32.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,197)
= Exp(a + b × X1,197 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,740 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1728 + -0.0005 × 1,740 – 2 × 0.0643)
= Exp(3.2364)
= $25.44
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 15.59% per annum.
- AXTA price at the close of March 10, 2026 was $29.09 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 24, 2025
End date: February 26, 2026
a = 0.5063
b = 0.0017
s = 0.0279
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 84.82%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0279) – 1
= 11.79%
September 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,140)
= Exp(a + b × X1,140 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,658 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5063 + 0.0017 × 1,658 + 2 × 0.0279)
= Exp(3.3520)
= $28.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,140)
= Exp(a + b × X1,140 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,658 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5063 + 0.0017 × 1,658 – 2 × 0.0279)
= Exp(3.2405)
= $25.55
February 26, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5063 + 0.0017 × 1,813 + 2 × 0.0279)
= Exp(3.6128)
= $37.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5063 + 0.0017 × 1,813 – 2 × 0.0279)
= Exp(3.5013)
= $33.16
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 84.82% per annum.
- AXTA price at the close of March 10, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $4.75 (14.03%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.