Albemarle Corp (ALB)
Albemarle Corporation is a fine chemical manufacturing company based in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 44.44% per annum.
- ALB price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $116.88 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 14.79% per annum.
- ALB price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ALB price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 11, 2022
End date: April 26, 2024
a = 7.6760
b = -0.0016
s = 0.1129
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -44.44%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1129) – 1
= 57.06%
August 11, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y829)
= Exp(a + b × X829 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,200 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6760 + -0.0016 × 1,200 + 2 × 0.1129)
= Exp(5.9698)
= $391.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y829)
= Exp(a + b × X829 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,200 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6760 + -0.0016 × 1,200 – 2 × 0.1129)
= Exp(5.5183)
= $249.21
April 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6760 + -0.0016 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1129)
= Exp(4.9652)
= $143.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6760 + -0.0016 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1129)
= Exp(4.5137)
= $91.26
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 44.44% per annum.
- ALB price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $116.88 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 20, 2023
End date: April 26, 2024
a = 5.5859
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0734
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -14.79%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0734) – 1
= 34.13%
October 20, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,129)
= Exp(a + b × X1,129 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,635 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5859 + -0.0004 × 1,635 + 2 × 0.0734)
= Exp(5.0159)
= $150.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,129)
= Exp(a + b × X1,129 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,635 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5859 + -0.0004 × 1,635 – 2 × 0.0734)
= Exp(4.7222)
= $112.41
April 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5859 + -0.0004 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0734)
= Exp(4.9330)
= $138.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5859 + -0.0004 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0734)
= Exp(4.6393)
= $103.47
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 14.79% per annum.
- ALB price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.