Stepan Company (SCL)
Stepan Company produces and sells specialty and intermediate chemicals to other manufacturers for use in various end products in North America, Europe, Latin America, and Asia. The company is headquartered in Northfield, Illinois.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 11.57% per annum.
- SCL price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $87.20 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 35.89% per annum.
- SCL price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SCL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 4, 2021
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 5.0231
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0745
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -11.57%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0745) – 1
= 34.74%
January 4, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y417)
= Exp(a + b × X417 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 606 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0231 + -0.0003 × 606 + 2 × 0.0745)
= Exp(4.9680)
= $143.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y417)
= Exp(a + b × X417 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 606 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0231 + -0.0003 × 606 – 2 × 0.0745)
= Exp(4.6699)
= $106.68
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0231 + -0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0745)
= Exp(4.5569)
= $95.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0231 + -0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0745)
= Exp(4.2587)
= $70.72
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 11.57% per annum.
- SCL price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $87.20 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 6, 2023
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 2.9914
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0710
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 35.89%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0710) – 1
= 32.85%
September 6, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,089)
= Exp(a + b × X1,089 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,581 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9914 + 0.0008 × 1,581 + 2 × 0.0710)
= Exp(4.4617)
= $86.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,089)
= Exp(a + b × X1,089 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,581 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9914 + 0.0008 × 1,581 – 2 × 0.0710)
= Exp(4.1777)
= $65.21
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9914 + 0.0008 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0710)
= Exp(4.6676)
= $106.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9914 + 0.0008 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0710)
= Exp(4.3835)
= $80.12
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 35.89% per annum.
- SCL price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.