RPM International Inc (RPM)
RPM International Inc. manufactures and sells specialty chemicals for the global consumer, specialty and industrial markets. The company is headquartered in Medina, Ohio.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 44.95% per annum.
- RPM price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $118.47 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 3.93% per annum.
- RPM price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of RPM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 9, 2023
End date: April 9, 2024
a = 3.0113
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0498
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 44.95%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0498) – 1
= 22.06%
March 9, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y911)
= Exp(a + b × X911 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,322 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0113 + 0.0010 × 1,322 + 2 × 0.0498)
= Exp(4.4556)
= $86.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y911)
= Exp(a + b × X911 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,322 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0113 + 0.0010 × 1,322 – 2 × 0.0498)
= Exp(4.2562)
= $70.54
April 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,183)
= Exp(a + b × X1,183 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,719 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0113 + 0.0010 × 1,719 + 2 × 0.0498)
= Exp(4.8593)
= $128.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,183)
= Exp(a + b × X1,183 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,719 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0113 + 0.0010 × 1,719 – 2 × 0.0498)
= Exp(4.6600)
= $105.64
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 44.95% per annum.
- RPM price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $118.47 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 6, 2023
End date: July 24, 2024
a = 4.5194
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0336
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 3.93%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0336) – 1
= 14.41%
December 6, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,099)
= Exp(a + b × X1,099 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,594 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5194 + 0.0001 × 1,594 + 2 × 0.0336)
= Exp(4.7550)
= $116.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,099)
= Exp(a + b × X1,099 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,594 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5194 + 0.0001 × 1,594 – 2 × 0.0336)
= Exp(4.6204)
= $101.53
July 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5194 + 0.0001 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0336)
= Exp(4.7794)
= $119.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5194 + 0.0001 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0336)
= Exp(4.6448)
= $104.04
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 3.93% per annum.
- RPM price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.