Colgate-Palmolive Company (CL)
Colgate-Palmolive Company is an American multinational consumer products company headquartered on Park Avenue in Midtown Manhattan, New York City. It specializes in the production, distribution and provision of household, health care, personal care and veterinary products.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 52.40% per annum.
- CL price at the close of October 18, 2024 was $100.46 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $4.88 (4.64%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 52.67% per annum.
- CL price at the close of October 18, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.44 (0.44%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 31, 2023
End date: September 18, 2024
a = 2.5920
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0201
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 52.40%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0201) – 1
= 8.38%
August 31, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y972)
= Exp(a + b × X972 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,410 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5920 + 0.0012 × 1,410 + 2 × 0.0201)
= Exp(4.2598)
= $70.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y972)
= Exp(a + b × X972 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,410 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5920 + 0.0012 × 1,410 – 2 × 0.0201)
= Exp(4.1793)
= $65.32
September 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,794 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5920 + 0.0012 × 1,794 + 2 × 0.0201)
= Exp(4.7030)
= $110.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,794 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5920 + 0.0012 × 1,794 – 2 × 0.0201)
= Exp(4.6226)
= $101.76
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 52.40% per annum.
- CL price at the close of October 18, 2024 was $100.46 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $4.88 (4.64%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 30, 2024
End date: October 14, 2024
a = 8.3208
b = -0.0020
s = 0.0111
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0020) – 1
= -52.67%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0111) – 1
= 4.54%
August 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,223)
= Exp(a + b × X1,223 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,775 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3208 + -0.0020 × 1,775 + 2 × 0.0111)
= Exp(4.7058)
= $110.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,223)
= Exp(a + b × X1,223 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,775 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3208 + -0.0020 × 1,775 – 2 × 0.0111)
= Exp(4.6614)
= $105.78
October 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3208 + -0.0020 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0111)
= Exp(4.6136)
= $100.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3208 + -0.0020 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0111)
= Exp(4.5692)
= $96.46
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 52.67% per annum.
- CL price at the close of October 18, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.44 (0.44%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.