Stock Price Trends

Edgewell Personal Care Co (EPC)

Edgewell Personal Care Company manufactures and markets personal care products in the wet shaving, sun and skin care, and feminine care categories in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Shelton, Connecticut.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 32.04% per annum.
  • EPC price at the close of June 30, 2025 was $23.41 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.69 (6.73%).
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 78.24% per annum.
  • EPC price at the close of June 30, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of EPC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: June 17, 2024
End date: June 11, 2025

a = 5.2302

b = -0.0011

s = 0.0381

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -32.04%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0381) – 1
= 16.44%

June 17, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y996)
= Exp(a + b × X996 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,447 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2302 + -0.0011 × 1,447 + 2 × 0.0381)
= Exp(3.7750)
= $43.60

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y996)
= Exp(a + b × X996 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,447 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2302 + -0.0011 × 1,447 – 2 × 0.0381)
= Exp(3.6228)
= $37.44

June 11, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,242)
= Exp(a + b × X1,242 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2302 + -0.0011 × 1,806 + 2 × 0.0381)
= Exp(3.3952)
= $29.82

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,242)
= Exp(a + b × X1,242 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2302 + -0.0011 × 1,806 – 2 × 0.0381)
= Exp(3.2429)
= $25.61

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 32.04% per annum.
  • EPC price at the close of June 30, 2025 was $23.41 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.69 (6.73%).

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 21, 2025
End date: June 30, 2025

a = 10.7680

b = -0.0042

s = 0.0352

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0042) – 1
= -78.24%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0352) – 1
= 15.13%

April 21, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,206)
= Exp(a + b × X1,206 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,755 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.7680 + -0.0042 × 1,755 + 2 × 0.0352)
= Exp(3.5060)
= $33.31

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,206)
= Exp(a + b × X1,206 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,755 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.7680 + -0.0042 × 1,755 – 2 × 0.0352)
= Exp(3.3651)
= $28.94

June 30, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.7680 + -0.0042 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0352)
= Exp(3.2135)
= $24.87

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.7680 + -0.0042 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0352)
= Exp(3.0726)
= $21.60

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 78.24% per annum.
  • EPC price at the close of June 30, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.