Church & Dwight Company Inc (CHD)
Church & Dwight Co., Inc., is a major American manufacturer of household products that is headquartered in Ewing, New Jersey.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 21.75% per annum.
- CHD price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $99.01 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $15.78 (13.74%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 9.59% per annum.
- CHD price at the close of April 29, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.10 (2.08%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CHD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 31, 2022
End date: July 12, 2024
a = 3.8541
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0475
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 21.75%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0475) – 1
= 20.94%
August 31, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y589)
= Exp(a + b × X589 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 853 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8541 + 0.0005 × 853 + 2 × 0.0475)
= Exp(4.4091)
= $82.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y589)
= Exp(a + b × X589 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 853 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8541 + 0.0005 × 853 – 2 × 0.0475)
= Exp(4.2190)
= $67.96
July 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,056)
= Exp(a + b × X1,056 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,534 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8541 + 0.0005 × 1,534 + 2 × 0.0475)
= Exp(4.7763)
= $118.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,056)
= Exp(a + b × X1,056 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,534 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8541 + 0.0005 × 1,534 – 2 × 0.0475)
= Exp(4.5862)
= $98.12
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 21.75% per annum.
- CHD price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $99.01 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $15.78 (13.74%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 31, 2023
End date: April 29, 2025
a = 4.2339
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0379
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 9.59%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0379) – 1
= 16.36%
March 31, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y735)
= Exp(a + b × X735 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,065 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2339 + 0.0003 × 1,065 + 2 × 0.0379)
= Exp(4.5770)
= $97.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y735)
= Exp(a + b × X735 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,065 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2339 + 0.0003 × 1,065 – 2 × 0.0379)
= Exp(4.4255)
= $83.55
April 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2339 + 0.0003 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0379)
= Exp(4.7678)
= $117.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2339 + 0.0003 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0379)
= Exp(4.6162)
= $101.11
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 9.59% per annum.
- CHD price at the close of April 29, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.10 (2.08%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.