Church & Dwight Company Inc (CHD)
Church & Dwight Co., Inc., is a major American manufacturer of household products that is headquartered in Ewing, New Jersey.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 44.69% per annum.
- CHD price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $99.85 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $33.22 (24.96%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 18.19% per annum.
- CHD price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CHD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 6, 2022
End date: August 2, 2023
a = 3.1083
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0328
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 44.69%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0328) – 1
= 14.03%
September 6, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y784)
= Exp(a + b × X784 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,138 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1083 + 0.0010 × 1,138 + 2 × 0.0328)
= Exp(4.3257)
= $75.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y784)
= Exp(a + b × X784 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,138 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1083 + 0.0010 × 1,138 – 2 × 0.0328)
= Exp(4.1945)
= $66.32
August 2, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,011)
= Exp(a + b × X1,011 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,468 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1083 + 0.0010 × 1,468 + 2 × 0.0328)
= Exp(4.6598)
= $105.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,011)
= Exp(a + b × X1,011 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,468 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1083 + 0.0010 × 1,468 – 2 × 0.0328)
= Exp(4.5285)
= $92.62
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 44.69% per annum.
- CHD price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $99.85 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $33.22 (24.96%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 22, 2022
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 3.8404
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0420
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 18.19%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0420) – 1
= 18.28%
November 22, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y839)
= Exp(a + b × X839 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,215 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8404 + 0.0005 × 1,215 + 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(4.4805)
= $88.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y839)
= Exp(a + b × X839 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,215 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8404 + 0.0005 × 1,215 – 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(4.3127)
= $74.64
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8404 + 0.0005 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(4.7602)
= $116.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8404 + 0.0005 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(4.5924)
= $98.73
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 18.19% per annum.
- CHD price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.