Inter Parfums Inc (IPAR)
Inter Parfums, Inc., manufactures, markets and distributes a range of fragrances and fragrance-related products in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in New York, New York.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.11% per annum.
- IPAR price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $109.95 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 73.71% per annum.
- IPAR price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of IPAR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 1, 2023
End date: April 29, 2025
a = 5.0141
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0711
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -4.11%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0711) – 1
= 32.92%
March 1, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y713)
= Exp(a + b × X713 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,035 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0141 + -0.0001 × 1,035 + 2 × 0.0711)
= Exp(5.0373)
= $154.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y713)
= Exp(a + b × X713 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,035 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0141 + -0.0001 × 1,035 – 2 × 0.0711)
= Exp(4.7527)
= $115.90
April 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0141 + -0.0001 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0711)
= Exp(4.9464)
= $140.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0141 + -0.0001 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0711)
= Exp(4.6618)
= $105.83
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.11% per annum.
- IPAR price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $109.95 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 21, 2025
End date: April 29, 2025
a = 11.3195
b = -0.0037
s = 0.0408
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0037) – 1
= -73.71%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0408) – 1
= 17.72%
January 21, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,187)
= Exp(a + b × X1,187 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,727 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.3195 + -0.0037 × 1,727 + 2 × 0.0408)
= Exp(5.0793)
= $160.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,187)
= Exp(a + b × X1,187 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,727 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.3195 + -0.0037 × 1,727 – 2 × 0.0408)
= Exp(4.9162)
= $136.49
April 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.3195 + -0.0037 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0408)
= Exp(4.7206)
= $112.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.3195 + -0.0037 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0408)
= Exp(4.5575)
= $95.34
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 73.71% per annum.
- IPAR price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.