Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG)
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. is a leading fast-casual restaurant chain renowned for its commitment to providing high-quality, customizable meals with a focus on fresh ingredients and sustainable sourcing. Operating across the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Germany, and France, Chipotle specializes in Mexican-inspired cuisine, including tacos and Mission burritos, all prepared to order in a transparent kitchen environment. With a robust growth strategy and a strong brand loyalty, Chipotle continues to expand its footprint while emphasizing health-conscious and environmentally friendly practices. The company remains well-positioned within the competitive restaurant industry, appealing to the increasing demand for fast, quality dining experiences.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 28.68% per annum.
- CMG price at the close of January 9, 2026 was $40.11 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 387.58% per annum.
- CMG price at the close of January 9, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CMG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 25, 2024
End date: January 9, 2026
a = 5.3238
b = -0.0009
s = 0.1030
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -28.68%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1030) – 1
= 50.98%
April 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y826)
= Exp(a + b × X826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,199 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3238 + -0.0009 × 1,199 + 2 × 0.1030)
= Exp(4.4194)
= $83.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y826)
= Exp(a + b × X826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,199 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3238 + -0.0009 × 1,199 – 2 × 0.1030)
= Exp(4.0074)
= $55.01
January 9, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3238 + -0.0009 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.1030)
= Exp(3.8415)
= $46.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3238 + -0.0009 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.1030)
= Exp(3.4296)
= $30.86
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 28.68% per annum.
- CMG price at the close of January 9, 2026 was $40.11 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 6, 2025
End date: January 9, 2026
a = -4.2318
b = 0.0043
s = 0.0252
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0043) – 1
= 387.58%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0252) – 1
= 10.61%
November 6, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,211)
= Exp(a + b × X1,211 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,759 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.2318 + 0.0043 × 1,759 + 2 × 0.0252)
= Exp(3.4536)
= $31.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,211)
= Exp(a + b × X1,211 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,759 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.2318 + 0.0043 × 1,759 – 2 × 0.0252)
= Exp(3.3527)
= $28.58
January 9, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.2318 + 0.0043 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0252)
= Exp(3.7313)
= $41.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.2318 + 0.0043 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0252)
= Exp(3.6305)
= $37.73
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 387.58% per annum.
- CMG price at the close of January 9, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.