Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG)
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., often known simply as Chipotle, is an American chain of fast casual restaurants in the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Germany, and France, specializing in tacos and Mission burritos that are made to order in front of the customer.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 53.90% per annum.
- CMG price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $50.90 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.96 (1.91%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 10.65% per annum.
- CMG price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CMG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 22, 2024
End date: April 24, 2025
a = 7.7183
b = -0.0021
s = 0.0324
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0021) – 1
= -53.90%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0324) – 1
= 13.82%
November 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,151)
= Exp(a + b × X1,151 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,668 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7183 + -0.0021 × 1,668 + 2 × 0.0324)
= Exp(4.2440)
= $69.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,151)
= Exp(a + b × X1,151 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,668 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7183 + -0.0021 × 1,668 – 2 × 0.0324)
= Exp(4.1145)
= $61.22
April 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7183 + -0.0021 × 1,821 + 2 × 0.0324)
= Exp(3.9194)
= $50.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7183 + -0.0021 × 1,821 – 2 × 0.0324)
= Exp(3.7899)
= $44.25
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 53.90% per annum.
- CMG price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $50.90 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.96 (1.91%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 7, 2025
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 4.4535
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0299
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -10.65%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0299) – 1
= 12.70%
March 7, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,220)
= Exp(a + b × X1,220 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,773 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4535 + -0.0003 × 1,773 + 2 × 0.0299)
= Exp(3.9663)
= $52.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,220)
= Exp(a + b × X1,220 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,773 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4535 + -0.0003 × 1,773 – 2 × 0.0299)
= Exp(3.8468)
= $46.84
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4535 + -0.0003 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0299)
= Exp(3.9502)
= $51.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4535 + -0.0003 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0299)
= Exp(3.8307)
= $46.10
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 10.65% per annum.
- CMG price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.