Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG)
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., often known simply as Chipotle, is an American chain of fast casual restaurants in the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Germany, and France, specializing in tacos and Mission burritos that are made to order in front of the customer.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 60.23% per annum.
- CMG price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $49.83 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.95 (7.34%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 92.71% per annum.
- CMG price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CMG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 26, 2022
End date: July 16, 2024
a = 1.7933
b = 0.0013
s = 0.0822
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 60.23%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0822) – 1
= 38.92%
October 26, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y819)
= Exp(a + b × X819 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,185 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7933 + 0.0013 × 1,185 + 2 × 0.0822)
= Exp(3.4882)
= $32.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y819)
= Exp(a + b × X819 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,185 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7933 + 0.0013 × 1,185 – 2 × 0.0822)
= Exp(3.1595)
= $23.56
July 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,814 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7933 + 0.0013 × 1,814 + 2 × 0.0822)
= Exp(4.3006)
= $73.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,814 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7933 + 0.0013 × 1,814 – 2 × 0.0822)
= Exp(3.9719)
= $53.09
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 60.23% per annum.
- CMG price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $49.83 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.95 (7.34%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 17, 2024
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 17.0302
b = -0.0072
s = 0.0214
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0072) – 1
= -92.71%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0214) – 1
= 8.92%
June 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,230)
= Exp(a + b × X1,230 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,785 + 2 × s)
= Exp(17.0302 + -0.0072 × 1,785 + 2 × 0.0214)
= Exp(4.2650)
= $71.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,230)
= Exp(a + b × X1,230 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,785 – 2 × s)
= Exp(17.0302 + -0.0072 × 1,785 – 2 × 0.0214)
= Exp(4.1796)
= $65.34
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(17.0302 + -0.0072 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0214)
= Exp(3.9852)
= $53.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(17.0302 + -0.0072 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0214)
= Exp(3.8997)
= $49.39
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 92.71% per annum.
- CMG price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.