Stock Price Trends

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG)

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., often known simply as Chipotle, is an American chain of fast casual restaurants in the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Germany, and France, specializing in tacos and Mission burritos that are made to order in front of the customer.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 142.82% per annum.
  • CMG price at the close of April 19, 2024 was $2,869.11 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 11.39% per annum.
  • CMG price at the close of April 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CMG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 21, 2023
End date: April 19, 2024

a = 3.5752

b = 0.0024

s = 0.0334

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0024) – 1
= 142.82%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0334) – 1
= 14.31%

September 21, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,113)
= Exp(a + b × X1,113 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,613 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5752 + 0.0024 × 1,613 + 2 × 0.0334)
= Exp(7.5625)
= $1,924.66

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,113)
= Exp(a + b × X1,113 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,613 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5752 + 0.0024 × 1,613 – 2 × 0.0334)
= Exp(7.4288)
= $1,683.74

April 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5752 + 0.0024 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0334)
= Exp(8.0753)
= $3,214.23

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5752 + 0.0024 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0334)
= Exp(7.9416)
= $2,811.89

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 142.82% per annum.
  • CMG price at the close of April 19, 2024 was $2,869.11 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 20, 2024
End date: April 19, 2024

a = 7.4430

b = 0.0003

s = 0.0113

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 11.39%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0113) – 1
= 4.61%

March 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,794 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4430 + 0.0003 × 1,794 + 2 × 0.0113)
= Exp(7.9956)
= $2,967.89

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,794 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4430 + 0.0003 × 1,794 – 2 × 0.0113)
= Exp(7.9505)
= $2,837.13

April 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4430 + 0.0003 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0113)
= Exp(8.0045)
= $2,994.32

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4430 + 0.0003 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0113)
= Exp(7.9594)
= $2,862.39

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 11.39% per annum.
  • CMG price at the close of April 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.