# Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG)

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., often known simply as Chipotle, is an American chain of fast casual restaurants in the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Germany, and France, specializing in tacos and Mission burritos that are made to order in front of the customer.

## Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

#### Key facts

- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 57.97% per annum.
- CMG price at the close of September 12, 2024 was $56.35 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.16 (0.28%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 47.71% per annum.
- CMG price at the close of September 12, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

### Linear Regression Model

Model equation:

Y_{i} = α + β × X_{i} + ε_{i}

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number

Y_{i} - natural logarithm of CMG price

X_{i} - time index, 1 day interval

σ - standard deviation of ε_{i}

a - estimator of α

b - estimator of β

s - estimator of σ

Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

### Primary Trend

Start date: September 30, 2022

End date: July 16, 2024

a = 1.9131

b = 0.0013

s = 0.0831

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1

= 57.97%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.0831) – 1

= 39.43%

#### September 30, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{768})

= Exp(a + b × X_{768} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,113 + 2 × s)

= Exp(1.9131 + 0.0013 × 1,113 + 2 × 0.0831)

= Exp(3.4736)

= $32.25

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{768})

= Exp(a + b × X_{768} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,113 – 2 × s)

= Exp(1.9131 + 0.0013 × 1,113 – 2 × 0.0831)

= Exp(3.1412)

= $23.13

#### July 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,216})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,216} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,768 + 2 × s)

= Exp(1.9131 + 0.0013 × 1,768 + 2 × 0.0831)

= Exp(4.2941)

= $73.27

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,216})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,216} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,768 – 2 × s)

= Exp(1.9131 + 0.0013 × 1,768 – 2 × 0.0831)

= Exp(3.9617)

= $52.55

#### Description

- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 57.97% per annum.
- CMG price at the close of September 12, 2024 was $56.35 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.16 (0.28%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

### Secondary Trend

Start date: April 25, 2024

End date: September 10, 2024

a = 7.1909

b = -0.0018

s = 0.0480

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × -0.0018) – 1

= -47.71%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.0480) – 1

= 21.17%

#### April 25, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,161})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,161} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,686 + 2 × s)

= Exp(7.1909 + -0.0018 × 1,686 + 2 × 0.0480)

= Exp(4.2918)

= $73.10

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,161})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,161} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,686 – 2 × s)

= Exp(7.1909 + -0.0018 × 1,686 – 2 × 0.0480)

= Exp(4.0998)

= $60.33

#### September 10, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,255})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,255} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)

= Exp(7.1909 + -0.0018 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0480)

= Exp(4.0467)

= $57.21

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,255})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,255} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)

= Exp(7.1909 + -0.0018 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0480)

= Exp(3.8546)

= $47.21

#### Description

- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 47.71% per annum.
- CMG price at the close of September 12, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.