Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG)
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. is a leading fast-casual restaurant chain renowned for its commitment to providing high-quality, customizable meals with a focus on fresh ingredients and sustainable sourcing. Operating across the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Germany, and France, Chipotle specializes in Mexican-inspired cuisine, including tacos and Mission burritos, all prepared to order in a transparent kitchen environment. With a robust growth strategy and a strong brand loyalty, Chipotle continues to expand its footprint while emphasizing health-conscious and environmentally friendly practices. The company remains well-positioned within the competitive restaurant industry, appealing to the increasing demand for fast, quality dining experiences.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 27.33% per annum.
- CMG price at the close of January 26, 2026 was $39.72 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 329.84% per annum.
- CMG price at the close of January 26, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.05 (0.12%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CMG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 8, 2024
End date: January 26, 2026
a = 5.2300
b = -0.0009
s = 0.1036
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -27.33%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1036) – 1
= 51.34%
April 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y803)
= Exp(a + b × X803 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,167 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2300 + -0.0009 × 1,167 + 2 × 0.1036)
= Exp(4.4165)
= $82.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y803)
= Exp(a + b × X803 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,167 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2300 + -0.0009 × 1,167 – 2 × 0.1036)
= Exp(4.0022)
= $54.72
January 26, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2300 + -0.0009 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1036)
= Exp(3.8411)
= $46.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2300 + -0.0009 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1036)
= Exp(3.4267)
= $30.78
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 27.33% per annum.
- CMG price at the close of January 26, 2026 was $39.72 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 6, 2025
End date: January 26, 2026
a = -3.5560
b = 0.0040
s = 0.0261
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0040) – 1
= 329.84%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0261) – 1
= 10.99%
November 6, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,201)
= Exp(a + b × X1,201 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,744 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.5560 + 0.0040 × 1,744 + 2 × 0.0261)
= Exp(3.4637)
= $31.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,201)
= Exp(a + b × X1,201 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,744 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.5560 + 0.0040 × 1,744 – 2 × 0.0261)
= Exp(3.3594)
= $28.77
January 26, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.5560 + 0.0040 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0261)
= Exp(3.7873)
= $44.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.5560 + 0.0040 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0261)
= Exp(3.6830)
= $39.77
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 329.84% per annum.
- CMG price at the close of January 26, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.05 (0.12%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.