Bloomin Brands Inc (BLMN)
Bloomin 'Brands, Inc. owns and operates casual, upscale casual and fine dining restaurants in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Tampa, Florida.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 18.82% per annum.
- BLMN price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $23.89 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $8.15 (51.79%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 18.82% per annum.
- BLMN price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BLMN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 14, 2021
End date: October 17, 2022
a = 3.5909
b = -0.0006
s = 0.1043
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -18.82%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1043) – 1
= 51.74%
January 14, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y425)
= Exp(a + b × X425 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 616 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5909 + -0.0006 × 616 + 2 × 0.1043)
= Exp(3.4474)
= $31.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y425)
= Exp(a + b × X425 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 616 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5909 + -0.0006 × 616 – 2 × 0.1043)
= Exp(3.0304)
= $20.71
October 17, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y867)
= Exp(a + b × X867 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5909 + -0.0006 × 1,257 + 2 × 0.1043)
= Exp(3.0812)
= $21.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y867)
= Exp(a + b × X867 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5909 + -0.0006 × 1,257 – 2 × 0.1043)
= Exp(2.6642)
= $14.36
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 18.82% per annum.
- BLMN price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $23.89 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $8.15 (51.79%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 26, 2021
End date: May 6, 2024
a = 2.4580
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0856
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 18.82%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0856) – 1
= 40.85%
October 26, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y622)
= Exp(a + b × X622 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 901 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4580 + 0.0005 × 901 + 2 × 0.0856)
= Exp(3.0549)
= $21.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y622)
= Exp(a + b × X622 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 901 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4580 + 0.0005 × 901 – 2 × 0.0856)
= Exp(2.7124)
= $15.07
May 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4580 + 0.0005 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0856)
= Exp(3.4910)
= $32.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4580 + 0.0005 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0856)
= Exp(3.1484)
= $23.30
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 18.82% per annum.
- BLMN price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.