Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL)
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. develops and operates the Cracker Barrel Old Country Store concept in the United States. The company is headquartered in Lebanon, Tennessee.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 74.24% per annum.
- CBRL price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $43.69 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 181.36% per annum.
- CBRL price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CBRL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 22, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 10.4634
b = -0.0037
s = 0.0579
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0037) – 1
= -74.24%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0579) – 1
= 26.04%
January 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,128)
= Exp(a + b × X1,128 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,638 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.4634 + -0.0037 × 1,638 + 2 × 0.0579)
= Exp(4.4931)
= $89.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,128)
= Exp(a + b × X1,128 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,638 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.4634 + -0.0037 × 1,638 – 2 × 0.0579)
= Exp(4.2617)
= $70.93
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.4634 + -0.0037 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0579)
= Exp(3.8057)
= $44.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.4634 + -0.0037 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0579)
= Exp(3.5743)
= $35.67
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 74.24% per annum.
- CBRL price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $43.69 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 25, 2024
End date: July 26, 2024
a = -1.3947
b = 0.0028
s = 0.0380
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0028) – 1
= 181.36%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0380) – 1
= 16.40%
June 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,793 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.3947 + 0.0028 × 1,793 + 2 × 0.0380)
= Exp(3.7629)
= $43.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,793 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.3947 + 0.0028 × 1,793 – 2 × 0.0380)
= Exp(3.6110)
= $37.00
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.3947 + 0.0028 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0380)
= Exp(3.8507)
= $47.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.3947 + 0.0028 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0380)
= Exp(3.6989)
= $40.40
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 181.36% per annum.
- CBRL price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.