Stock Price Trends

Darden Restaurants Inc (DRI)

Darden Restaurants, Inc. is an American multi-brand restaurant operator headquartered in Orlando.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 30.73% per annum.
  • DRI price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $141.90 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 19.91% per annum.
  • DRI price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DRI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: February 1, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024

a = 6.7863

b = -0.0010

s = 0.0291

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -30.73%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0291) – 1
= 12.33%

February 1, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,137)
= Exp(a + b × X1,137 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,651 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7863 + -0.0010 × 1,651 + 2 × 0.0291)
= Exp(5.1835)
= $178.30

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,137)
= Exp(a + b × X1,137 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,651 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7863 + -0.0010 × 1,651 – 2 × 0.0291)
= Exp(5.0672)
= $158.73

July 25, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7863 + -0.0010 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0291)
= Exp(5.0074)
= $149.52

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7863 + -0.0010 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0291)
= Exp(4.8912)
= $133.11

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 30.73% per annum.
  • DRI price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $141.90 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 10, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024

a = 6.0744

b = -0.0006

s = 0.0205

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -19.91%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0205) – 1
= 8.56%

April 10, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,184)
= Exp(a + b × X1,184 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,720 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0744 + -0.0006 × 1,720 + 2 × 0.0205)
= Exp(5.0693)
= $159.07

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,184)
= Exp(a + b × X1,184 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,720 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0744 + -0.0006 × 1,720 – 2 × 0.0205)
= Exp(4.9872)
= $146.53

July 25, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0744 + -0.0006 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0205)
= Exp(5.0049)
= $149.14

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0744 + -0.0006 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0205)
= Exp(4.9228)
= $137.38

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 19.91% per annum.
  • DRI price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.