Stock Price Trends

Darden Restaurants Inc (DRI)

Darden Restaurants, Inc. is an American multi-brand restaurant operator headquartered in Orlando.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 60.05% per annum.
  • DRI price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $146.92 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 83.16% per annum.
  • DRI price at the close of May 9, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DRI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 4, 2024
End date: May 9, 2024

a = 9.5821

b = -0.0025

s = 0.0177

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0025) – 1
= -60.05%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0177) – 1
= 7.33%

March 4, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,211)
= Exp(a + b × X1,211 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,760 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5821 + -0.0025 × 1,760 + 2 × 0.0177)
= Exp(5.1932)
= $180.04

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,211)
= Exp(a + b × X1,211 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,760 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5821 + -0.0025 × 1,760 – 2 × 0.0177)
= Exp(5.1224)
= $167.74

May 9, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5821 + -0.0025 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0177)
= Exp(5.0273)
= $152.52

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5821 + -0.0025 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0177)
= Exp(4.9565)
= $142.10

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 60.05% per annum.
  • DRI price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $146.92 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 24, 2024
End date: May 9, 2024

a = 13.8960

b = -0.0049

s = 0.0096

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0049) – 1
= -83.16%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0096) – 1
= 3.93%

April 24, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.8960 + -0.0049 × 1,811 + 2 × 0.0096)
= Exp(5.0758)
= $160.09

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.8960 + -0.0049 × 1,811 – 2 × 0.0096)
= Exp(5.0372)
= $154.04

May 9, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.8960 + -0.0049 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0096)
= Exp(5.0025)
= $148.79

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.8960 + -0.0049 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0096)
= Exp(4.9640)
= $143.16

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 83.16% per annum.
  • DRI price at the close of May 9, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.