The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE)
Cheesecake Factory Incorporated operates restaurants. The company is headquartered in Calabasas, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 34.69% per annum.
- CAKE price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $36.06 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $19.37 (116.05%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 7.68% per annum.
- CAKE price at the close of May 9, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CAKE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 20, 2021
End date: October 11, 2022
a = 4.7555
b = -0.0012
s = 0.0952
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -34.69%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0952) – 1
= 46.33%
January 20, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y427)
= Exp(a + b × X427 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 621 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7555 + -0.0012 × 621 + 2 × 0.0952)
= Exp(4.2211)
= $68.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y427)
= Exp(a + b × X427 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 621 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7555 + -0.0012 × 621 – 2 × 0.0952)
= Exp(3.8404)
= $46.55
October 11, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y862)
= Exp(a + b × X862 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,250 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7555 + -0.0012 × 1,250 + 2 × 0.0952)
= Exp(3.4871)
= $32.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y862)
= Exp(a + b × X862 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,250 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7555 + -0.0012 × 1,250 – 2 × 0.0952)
= Exp(3.1064)
= $22.34
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 34.69% per annum.
- CAKE price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $36.06 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $19.37 (116.05%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 5, 2022
End date: May 9, 2024
a = 3.1776
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0818
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 7.68%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0818) – 1
= 38.72%
May 5, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y753)
= Exp(a + b × X753 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,091 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1776 + 0.0002 × 1,091 + 2 × 0.0818)
= Exp(3.5623)
= $35.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y753)
= Exp(a + b × X753 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,091 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1776 + 0.0002 × 1,091 – 2 × 0.0818)
= Exp(3.2350)
= $25.41
May 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1776 + 0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0818)
= Exp(3.7112)
= $40.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1776 + 0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0818)
= Exp(3.3839)
= $29.49
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 7.68% per annum.
- CAKE price at the close of May 9, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.