The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE)
Cheesecake Factory Incorporated operates restaurants. The company is headquartered in Calabasas, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 48.25% per annum.
- CAKE price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $51.07 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 55.77% per annum.
- CAKE price at the close of April 28, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.18 (4.47%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CAKE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 5, 2023
End date: April 2, 2025
a = 2.0071
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0601
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 48.25%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0601) – 1
= 27.17%
September 5, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y843)
= Exp(a + b × X843 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,224 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0071 + 0.0011 × 1,224 + 2 × 0.0601)
= Exp(3.4475)
= $31.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y843)
= Exp(a + b × X843 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,224 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0071 + 0.0011 × 1,224 – 2 × 0.0601)
= Exp(3.2072)
= $24.71
April 2, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0071 + 0.0011 × 1,799 + 2 × 0.0601)
= Exp(4.0677)
= $58.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0071 + 0.0011 × 1,799 – 2 × 0.0601)
= Exp(3.8274)
= $45.94
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 48.25% per annum.
- CAKE price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $51.07 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 27, 2025
End date: April 17, 2025
a = 7.8850
b = -0.0022
s = 0.0417
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0022) – 1
= -55.77%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0417) – 1
= 18.16%
January 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,192)
= Exp(a + b × X1,192 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,734 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8850 + -0.0022 × 1,734 + 2 × 0.0417)
= Exp(4.0929)
= $59.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,192)
= Exp(a + b × X1,192 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,734 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8850 + -0.0022 × 1,734 – 2 × 0.0417)
= Exp(3.9260)
= $50.70
April 17, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,814 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8850 + -0.0022 × 1,814 + 2 × 0.0417)
= Exp(3.9141)
= $50.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,814 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8850 + -0.0022 × 1,814 – 2 × 0.0417)
= Exp(3.7472)
= $42.40
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 55.77% per annum.
- CAKE price at the close of April 28, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.18 (4.47%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.