Texas Roadhouse Inc (TXRH)
Texas Roadhouse, Inc., operates casual restaurants in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 38.94% per annum.
- TXRH price at the close of September 12, 2025 was $166.69 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 64.32% per annum.
- TXRH price at the close of September 12, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TXRH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 27, 2025
End date: September 12, 2025
a = 7.5971
b = -0.0014
s = 0.0178
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -38.94%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0178) – 1
= 7.38%
May 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,179)
= Exp(a + b × X1,179 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,715 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5971 + -0.0014 × 1,715 + 2 × 0.0178)
= Exp(5.3145)
= $203.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,179)
= Exp(a + b × X1,179 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,715 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5971 + -0.0014 × 1,715 – 2 × 0.0178)
= Exp(5.2434)
= $189.31
September 12, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5971 + -0.0014 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0178)
= Exp(5.1686)
= $175.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5971 + -0.0014 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0178)
= Exp(5.0974)
= $163.60
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 38.94% per annum.
- TXRH price at the close of September 12, 2025 was $166.69 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 22, 2025
End date: September 12, 2025
a = 10.2604
b = -0.0028
s = 0.0051
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0028) – 1
= -64.32%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0051) – 1
= 2.05%
August 22, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,802 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2604 + -0.0028 × 1,802 + 2 × 0.0051)
= Exp(5.1821)
= $178.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,802 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2604 + -0.0028 × 1,802 – 2 × 0.0051)
= Exp(5.1618)
= $174.47
September 12, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2604 + -0.0028 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0051)
= Exp(5.1228)
= $167.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2604 + -0.0028 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0051)
= Exp(5.1025)
= $164.43
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 64.32% per annum.
- TXRH price at the close of September 12, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.