Texas Roadhouse Inc (TXRH)
Texas Roadhouse, Inc., operates casual restaurants in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 160.92% per annum.
- TXRH price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $166.49 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 45.24% per annum.
- TXRH price at the close of May 9, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TXRH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 21, 2023
End date: May 9, 2024
a = 0.3257
b = 0.0026
s = 0.0367
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0026) – 1
= 160.92%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0367) – 1
= 15.81%
September 21, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,099)
= Exp(a + b × X1,099 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,595 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3257 + 0.0026 × 1,595 + 2 × 0.0367)
= Exp(4.5900)
= $98.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,099)
= Exp(a + b × X1,099 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,595 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3257 + 0.0026 × 1,595 – 2 × 0.0367)
= Exp(4.4433)
= $85.05
May 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3257 + 0.0026 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0367)
= Exp(5.1970)
= $180.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3257 + 0.0026 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0367)
= Exp(5.0502)
= $156.06
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 160.92% per annum.
- TXRH price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $166.49 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 16, 2024
End date: May 9, 2024
a = 3.2028
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0231
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 45.24%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0231) – 1
= 9.66%
February 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,201)
= Exp(a + b × X1,201 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,743 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2028 + 0.0010 × 1,743 + 2 × 0.0231)
= Exp(5.0312)
= $153.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,201)
= Exp(a + b × X1,201 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,743 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2028 + 0.0010 × 1,743 – 2 × 0.0231)
= Exp(4.9390)
= $139.63
May 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2028 + 0.0010 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0231)
= Exp(5.1161)
= $166.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2028 + 0.0010 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0231)
= Exp(5.0239)
= $152.00
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 45.24% per annum.
- TXRH price at the close of May 9, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.