BJs Restaurants Inc (BJRI)
BJ's Restaurants, Inc. owns and operates casual restaurants in the United States. The company is headquartered in Huntington Beach, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 24.25% per annum.
- BJRI price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $33.30 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 11.00% per annum.
- BJRI price at the close of May 8, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.75 (2.31%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BJRI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 7, 2022
End date: August 17, 2023
a = 2.5771
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0891
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 24.25%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0891) – 1
= 42.80%
March 7, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y712)
= Exp(a + b × X712 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,033 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5771 + 0.0006 × 1,033 + 2 × 0.0891)
= Exp(3.3697)
= $29.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y712)
= Exp(a + b × X712 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,033 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5771 + 0.0006 × 1,033 – 2 × 0.0891)
= Exp(3.0134)
= $20.36
August 17, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,076)
= Exp(a + b × X1,076 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,561 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5771 + 0.0006 × 1,561 + 2 × 0.0891)
= Exp(3.6837)
= $39.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,076)
= Exp(a + b × X1,076 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,561 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5771 + 0.0006 × 1,561 – 2 × 0.0891)
= Exp(3.3275)
= $27.87
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 24.25% per annum.
- BJRI price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $33.30 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 21, 2022
End date: November 30, 2023
a = 3.8627
b = -0.0003
s = 0.1014
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -11.00%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1014) – 1
= 50.04%
October 21, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y871)
= Exp(a + b × X871 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,261 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8627 + -0.0003 × 1,261 + 2 × 0.1014)
= Exp(3.6631)
= $38.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y871)
= Exp(a + b × X871 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,261 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8627 + -0.0003 × 1,261 – 2 × 0.1014)
= Exp(3.2574)
= $25.98
November 30, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,149)
= Exp(a + b × X1,149 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,666 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8627 + -0.0003 × 1,666 + 2 × 0.1014)
= Exp(3.5338)
= $34.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,149)
= Exp(a + b × X1,149 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,666 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8627 + -0.0003 × 1,666 – 2 × 0.1014)
= Exp(3.1281)
= $22.83
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 11.00% per annum.
- BJRI price at the close of May 8, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.75 (2.31%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.