CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA)
CAVA Group, Inc. owns and operates a chain of Mediterranean restaurants. The company is headquartered in Washington, District of Columbia.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 51.15% per annum.
- CAVA price at the close of August 26, 2025 was $67.02 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 18.96% per annum.
- CAVA price at the close of August 26, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CAVA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 12, 2024
End date: August 26, 2025
a = 5.8680
b = -0.0020
s = 0.1196
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0020) – 1
= -51.15%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1196) – 1
= 61.36%
September 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y312)
= Exp(a + b × X312 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 455 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8680 + -0.0020 × 455 + 2 × 0.1196)
= Exp(5.2143)
= $183.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y312)
= Exp(a + b × X312 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 455 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8680 + -0.0020 × 455 – 2 × 0.1196)
= Exp(4.7359)
= $113.96
August 26, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y550)
= Exp(a + b × X550 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 803 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8680 + -0.0020 × 803 + 2 × 0.1196)
= Exp(4.5314)
= $92.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y550)
= Exp(a + b × X550 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 803 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8680 + -0.0020 × 803 – 2 × 0.1196)
= Exp(4.0529)
= $57.56
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 51.15% per annum.
- CAVA price at the close of August 26, 2025 was $67.02 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 27, 2025
End date: August 26, 2025
a = 4.8401
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0885
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -18.96%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0885) – 1
= 42.46%
February 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y426)
= Exp(a + b × X426 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 623 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8401 + -0.0006 × 623 + 2 × 0.0885)
= Exp(4.6582)
= $105.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y426)
= Exp(a + b × X426 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 623 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8401 + -0.0006 × 623 – 2 × 0.0885)
= Exp(4.3043)
= $74.02
August 26, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y550)
= Exp(a + b × X550 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 803 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8401 + -0.0006 × 803 + 2 × 0.0885)
= Exp(4.5546)
= $95.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y550)
= Exp(a + b × X550 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 803 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8401 + -0.0006 × 803 – 2 × 0.0885)
= Exp(4.2007)
= $66.73
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 18.96% per annum.
- CAVA price at the close of August 26, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.