Stock Price Trends

CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA)

CAVA Group, Inc. owns and operates a chain of Mediterranean restaurants. The company is headquartered in Washington, District of Columbia.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 51.15% per annum.
  • CAVA price at the close of August 26, 2025 was $67.02 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 18.96% per annum.
  • CAVA price at the close of August 26, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CAVA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 12, 2024
End date: August 26, 2025

a = 5.8680

b = -0.0020

s = 0.1196

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0020) – 1
= -51.15%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1196) – 1
= 61.36%

September 12, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y312)
= Exp(a + b × X312 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 455 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8680 + -0.0020 × 455 + 2 × 0.1196)
= Exp(5.2143)
= $183.89

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y312)
= Exp(a + b × X312 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 455 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8680 + -0.0020 × 455 – 2 × 0.1196)
= Exp(4.7359)
= $113.96

August 26, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y550)
= Exp(a + b × X550 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 803 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8680 + -0.0020 × 803 + 2 × 0.1196)
= Exp(4.5314)
= $92.89

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y550)
= Exp(a + b × X550 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 803 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8680 + -0.0020 × 803 – 2 × 0.1196)
= Exp(4.0529)
= $57.56

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 51.15% per annum.
  • CAVA price at the close of August 26, 2025 was $67.02 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 27, 2025
End date: August 26, 2025

a = 4.8401

b = -0.0006

s = 0.0885

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -18.96%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0885) – 1
= 42.46%

February 27, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y426)
= Exp(a + b × X426 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 623 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8401 + -0.0006 × 623 + 2 × 0.0885)
= Exp(4.6582)
= $105.45

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y426)
= Exp(a + b × X426 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 623 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8401 + -0.0006 × 623 – 2 × 0.0885)
= Exp(4.3043)
= $74.02

August 26, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y550)
= Exp(a + b × X550 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 803 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8401 + -0.0006 × 803 + 2 × 0.0885)
= Exp(4.5546)
= $95.06

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y550)
= Exp(a + b × X550 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 803 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8401 + -0.0006 × 803 – 2 × 0.0885)
= Exp(4.2007)
= $66.73

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 18.96% per annum.
  • CAVA price at the close of August 26, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.