McDonald’s Corporation (MCD)
McDonald's Corporation is an American fast food company, founded in 1940 as a restaurant operated by Richard and Maurice McDonald, in San Bernardino, California, United States. They rechristened their business as a hamburger stand, and later turned the company into a franchise, with the Golden Arches logo being introduced in 1953 at a location in Phoenix, Arizona.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.58% per annum.
- MCD price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $273.09 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 89.32% per annum.
- MCD price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MCD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 27, 2023
End date: April 26, 2024
a = 6.9545
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0200
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -23.58%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0200) – 1
= 8.34%
December 27, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,175)
= Exp(a + b × X1,175 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,703 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9545 + -0.0007 × 1,703 + 2 × 0.0200)
= Exp(5.7396)
= $310.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,175)
= Exp(a + b × X1,175 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,703 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9545 + -0.0007 × 1,703 – 2 × 0.0200)
= Exp(5.6595)
= $287.01
April 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9545 + -0.0007 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0200)
= Exp(5.6504)
= $284.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9545 + -0.0007 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0200)
= Exp(5.5703)
= $262.52
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.58% per annum.
- MCD price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $273.09 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 5, 2024
End date: April 26, 2024
a = 2.4282
b = 0.0017
s = 0.0087
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 89.32%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0087) – 1
= 3.54%
April 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,803 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4282 + 0.0017 × 1,803 + 2 × 0.0087)
= Exp(5.5985)
= $270.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,803 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4282 + 0.0017 × 1,803 – 2 × 0.0087)
= Exp(5.5638)
= $260.81
April 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4282 + 0.0017 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0087)
= Exp(5.6353)
= $280.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4282 + 0.0017 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0087)
= Exp(5.6005)
= $270.57
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 89.32% per annum.
- MCD price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.