McDonald’s Corporation (MCD)
McDonald's Corporation is an American fast food company, founded in 1940 as a restaurant operated by Richard and Maurice McDonald, in San Bernardino, California, United States. They rechristened their business as a hamburger stand, and later turned the company into a franchise, with the Golden Arches logo being introduced in 1953 at a location in Phoenix, Arizona.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 26.19% per annum.
- MCD price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $251.46 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 3.85% per annum.
- MCD price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MCD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 26, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 7.0407
b = -0.0008
s = 0.0203
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -26.19%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0203) – 1
= 8.47%
December 26, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,112)
= Exp(a + b × X1,112 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,614 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0407 + -0.0008 × 1,614 + 2 × 0.0203)
= Exp(5.7387)
= $310.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,112)
= Exp(a + b × X1,112 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,614 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0407 + -0.0008 × 1,614 – 2 × 0.0203)
= Exp(5.6574)
= $286.39
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0407 + -0.0008 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0203)
= Exp(5.5623)
= $260.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0407 + -0.0008 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0203)
= Exp(5.4810)
= $240.08
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 26.19% per annum.
- MCD price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $251.46 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 23, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 5.7329
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0163
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -3.85%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0163) – 1
= 6.74%
May 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,215)
= Exp(a + b × X1,215 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,763 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7329 + -0.0001 × 1,763 + 2 × 0.0163)
= Exp(5.5761)
= $264.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,215)
= Exp(a + b × X1,215 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,763 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7329 + -0.0001 × 1,763 – 2 × 0.0163)
= Exp(5.5108)
= $247.35
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7329 + -0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0163)
= Exp(5.5693)
= $262.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7329 + -0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0163)
= Exp(5.5041)
= $245.69
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 3.85% per annum.
- MCD price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.