# McDonald’s Corporation (MCD)

McDonald's Corporation is an American fast food company, founded in 1940 as a restaurant operated by Richard and Maurice McDonald, in San Bernardino, California, United States. They rechristened their business as a hamburger stand, and later turned the company into a franchise, with the Golden Arches logo being introduced in 1953 at a location in Phoenix, Arizona.

## Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

#### Key facts

• The primary trend is decreasing.
• The decline rate of the primary trend is 53.26% per annum.
• MCD price at the close of April 16, 2024 was \$265.43 and was inside the primary price channel.
• The secondary trend is decreasing.
• The decline rate of the secondary trend is 63.30% per annum.
• MCD price at the close of April 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

### Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MCD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

### Primary Trend

Start date: February 22, 2024
End date: April 16, 2024

a = 9.3906

b = -0.0021

s = 0.0120

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0021) – 1
= -53.26%

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0120) – 1
= 4.92%

#### February 22, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,220)
= Exp(a + b × X1,220 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,772 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3906 + -0.0021 × 1,772 + 2 × 0.0120)
= Exp(5.7218)
= \$305.46

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,220)
= Exp(a + b × X1,220 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,772 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3906 + -0.0021 × 1,772 – 2 × 0.0120)
= Exp(5.6738)
= \$291.14

#### April 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3906 + -0.0021 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0120)
= Exp(5.6093)
= \$272.95

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3906 + -0.0021 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0120)
= Exp(5.5613)
= \$260.16

#### Description

• The primary trend is decreasing.
• The decline rate of the primary trend is 53.26% per annum.
• MCD price at the close of April 16, 2024 was \$265.43 and was inside the primary price channel.

### Secondary Trend

Start date: March 20, 2024
End date: April 16, 2024

a = 10.5929

b = -0.0027

s = 0.0094

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0027) – 1
= -63.30%

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0094) – 1
= 3.84%

#### March 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.5929 + -0.0027 × 1,799 + 2 × 0.0094)
= Exp(5.6707)
= \$290.22

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.5929 + -0.0027 × 1,799 – 2 × 0.0094)
= Exp(5.6329)
= \$279.48

#### April 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.5929 + -0.0027 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0094)
= Exp(5.5965)
= \$269.48

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.5929 + -0.0027 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0094)
= Exp(5.5588)
= \$259.50

#### Description

• The secondary trend is decreasing.
• The decline rate of the secondary trend is 63.30% per annum.
• MCD price at the close of April 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.