The Wendy’s Co (WEN)
The Wendy's Company, is a quick service restaurant business. The company is headquartered in Dublin, Ohio.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 11.88% per annum.
- WEN price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $19.43 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.07 (0.38%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 58.10% per annum.
- WEN price at the close of May 9, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WEN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 25, 2022
End date: April 18, 2024
a = 3.5303
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0326
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -11.88%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0326) – 1
= 13.94%
November 25, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y894)
= Exp(a + b × X894 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,295 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5303 + -0.0003 × 1,295 + 2 × 0.0326)
= Exp(3.1469)
= $23.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y894)
= Exp(a + b × X894 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,295 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5303 + -0.0003 × 1,295 – 2 × 0.0326)
= Exp(3.0165)
= $20.42
April 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,805 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5303 + -0.0003 × 1,805 + 2 × 0.0326)
= Exp(2.9703)
= $19.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,805 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5303 + -0.0003 × 1,805 – 2 × 0.0326)
= Exp(2.8398)
= $17.11
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 11.88% per annum.
- WEN price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $19.43 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.07 (0.38%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 16, 2024
End date: May 9, 2024
a = 0.6891
b = 0.0013
s = 0.0179
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 58.10%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0179) – 1
= 7.42%
February 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,201)
= Exp(a + b × X1,201 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,743 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6891 + 0.0013 × 1,743 + 2 × 0.0179)
= Exp(2.9124)
= $18.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,201)
= Exp(a + b × X1,201 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,743 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6891 + 0.0013 × 1,743 – 2 × 0.0179)
= Exp(2.8408)
= $17.13
May 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6891 + 0.0013 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0179)
= Exp(3.0165)
= $20.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6891 + 0.0013 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0179)
= Exp(2.9450)
= $19.01
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 58.10% per annum.
- WEN price at the close of May 9, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.