Starbucks Corporation (SBUX)
Starbucks Corporation is an American multinational chain of coffeehouses and roastery reserves headquartered in Seattle, Washington. As the world's largest coffeehouse chain, Starbucks is seen to be the main representation of the United States' second wave of coffee culture.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 10.49% per annum.
- SBUX price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $88.25 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 27.38% per annum.
- SBUX price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SBUX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 4, 2023
End date: April 26, 2024
a = 5.0572
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0366
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -10.49%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0366) – 1
= 15.79%
January 4, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y929)
= Exp(a + b × X929 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,346 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0572 + -0.0003 × 1,346 + 2 × 0.0366)
= Exp(4.7220)
= $112.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y929)
= Exp(a + b × X929 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,346 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0572 + -0.0003 × 1,346 – 2 × 0.0366)
= Exp(4.5755)
= $97.07
April 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0572 + -0.0003 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0366)
= Exp(4.5770)
= $97.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0572 + -0.0003 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0366)
= Exp(4.4304)
= $83.96
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 10.49% per annum.
- SBUX price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $88.25 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 3, 2023
End date: April 26, 2024
a = 6.0652
b = -0.0009
s = 0.0239
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -27.38%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0239) – 1
= 10.03%
November 3, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,139)
= Exp(a + b × X1,139 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,649 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0652 + -0.0009 × 1,649 + 2 × 0.0239)
= Exp(4.6679)
= $106.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,139)
= Exp(a + b × X1,139 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,649 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0652 + -0.0009 × 1,649 – 2 × 0.0239)
= Exp(4.5723)
= $96.76
April 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0652 + -0.0009 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0239)
= Exp(4.5145)
= $91.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0652 + -0.0009 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0239)
= Exp(4.4189)
= $83.00
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 27.38% per annum.
- SBUX price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.