Stock Price Trends

Starbucks Corporation (SBUX)

Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) is a leading American multinational coffeehouse chain headquartered in Seattle, Washington, and is recognized as the largest coffeehouse brand globally. As a key player in the second wave of coffee culture, Starbucks not only serves high-quality coffee but also offers a unique customer experience through its innovative store designs and extensive beverage menu. With a robust international presence, the company continues to expand its footprint while emphasizing sustainability and ethical sourcing practices, which resonate with today's socially conscious consumers. Starbucks is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for premium coffee and beverage offerings worldwide.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 31.35% per annum.
  • SBUX price at the close of November 5, 2025 was $82.88 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 3.85% per annum.
  • SBUX price at the close of November 5, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SBUX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: June 11, 2025
End date: November 5, 2025

a = 6.2830

b = -0.0010

s = 0.0273

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -31.35%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0273) – 1
= 11.52%

June 11, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,152)
= Exp(a + b × X1,152 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,678 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2830 + -0.0010 × 1,678 + 2 × 0.0273)
= Exp(4.6080)
= $100.28

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,152)
= Exp(a + b × X1,152 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,678 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2830 + -0.0010 × 1,678 – 2 × 0.0273)
= Exp(4.4989)
= $89.92

November 5, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2830 + -0.0010 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0273)
= Exp(4.4565)
= $86.18

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2830 + -0.0010 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0273)
= Exp(4.3474)
= $77.28

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 31.35% per annum.
  • SBUX price at the close of November 5, 2025 was $82.88 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 8, 2025
End date: November 5, 2025

a = 4.6178

b = -0.0001

s = 0.0259

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -3.85%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0259) – 1
= 10.91%

September 8, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,767 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6178 + -0.0001 × 1,767 + 2 × 0.0259)
= Exp(4.4795)
= $88.19

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,767 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6178 + -0.0001 × 1,767 – 2 × 0.0259)
= Exp(4.3759)
= $79.51

November 5, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6178 + -0.0001 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0259)
= Exp(4.4732)
= $87.64

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6178 + -0.0001 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0259)
= Exp(4.3697)
= $79.02

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 3.85% per annum.
  • SBUX price at the close of November 5, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.