Chevron Corp (CVX)
Chevron Corporation is an American multinational energy corporation. One of the successor companies of Standard Oil, it is headquartered in San Ramon, California, and active in more than 180 countries. Chevron is engaged in every aspect of the oil and natural gas industries, including hydrocarbon exploration and production; refining, marketing and transport; chemicals manufacturing and sales; and power generation.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 0.72% per annum.
- CVX price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $157.54 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 21.27% per annum.
- CVX price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CVX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 2, 2022
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 5.0041
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0600
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 0.72%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0600) – 1
= 27.13%
March 2, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y655)
= Exp(a + b × X655 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 950 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0041 + 0.0000 × 950 + 2 × 0.0600)
= Exp(5.1427)
= $171.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y655)
= Exp(a + b × X655 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 950 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0041 + 0.0000 × 950 – 2 × 0.0600)
= Exp(4.9026)
= $134.64
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0041 + 0.0000 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0600)
= Exp(5.1598)
= $174.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0041 + 0.0000 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0600)
= Exp(4.9197)
= $136.96
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 0.72% per annum.
- CVX price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $157.54 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 27, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 4.1248
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0262
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 21.27%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0262) – 1
= 11.05%
October 27, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,072)
= Exp(a + b × X1,072 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,554 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1248 + 0.0005 × 1,554 + 2 × 0.0262)
= Exp(4.9983)
= $148.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,072)
= Exp(a + b × X1,072 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,554 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1248 + 0.0005 × 1,554 – 2 × 0.0262)
= Exp(4.8935)
= $133.42
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1248 + 0.0005 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0262)
= Exp(5.1421)
= $171.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1248 + 0.0005 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0262)
= Exp(5.0373)
= $154.05
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 21.27% per annum.
- CVX price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.