Chevron Corp (CVX)
Chevron Corporation is an American multinational energy corporation. One of the successor companies of Standard Oil, it is headquartered in San Ramon, California, and active in more than 180 countries. Chevron is engaged in every aspect of the oil and natural gas industries, including hydrocarbon exploration and production; refining, marketing and transport; chemicals manufacturing and sales; and power generation.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.54% per annum.
- CVX price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $165.89 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $9.47 (6.05%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 31.68% per annum.
- CVX price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CVX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 19, 2022
End date: March 13, 2024
a = 5.4692
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0421
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -9.54%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0421) – 1
= 18.36%
October 19, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y877)
= Exp(a + b × X877 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,269 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4692 + -0.0003 × 1,269 + 2 × 0.0421)
= Exp(5.2050)
= $182.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y877)
= Exp(a + b × X877 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,269 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4692 + -0.0003 × 1,269 – 2 × 0.0421)
= Exp(5.0364)
= $153.92
March 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,227)
= Exp(a + b × X1,227 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,780 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4692 + -0.0003 × 1,780 + 2 × 0.0421)
= Exp(5.0647)
= $158.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,227)
= Exp(a + b × X1,227 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,780 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4692 + -0.0003 × 1,780 – 2 × 0.0421)
= Exp(4.8961)
= $133.77
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.54% per annum.
- CVX price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $165.89 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $9.47 (6.05%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 27, 2023
End date: April 26, 2024
a = 3.6994
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0211
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 31.68%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0211) – 1
= 8.79%
October 27, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,134)
= Exp(a + b × X1,134 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,642 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6994 + 0.0008 × 1,642 + 2 × 0.0211)
= Exp(4.9798)
= $145.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,134)
= Exp(a + b × X1,134 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,642 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6994 + 0.0008 × 1,642 – 2 × 0.0211)
= Exp(4.8955)
= $133.69
April 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6994 + 0.0008 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0211)
= Exp(5.1170)
= $166.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6994 + 0.0008 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0211)
= Exp(5.0328)
= $153.36
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 31.68% per annum.
- CVX price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.