Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM)
Exxon Mobil Corporation, stylized as ExxonMobil, is an American multinational oil and gas corporation headquartered in Irving, Texas. It is the largest direct descendant of John D. Rockefeller's Standard Oil, and was formed on November 30, 1999 by the merger of Exxon (formerly the Standard Oil Company of New Jersey) and Mobil (formerly the Standard Oil Company of New York). ExxonMobil's primary brands are Exxon, Mobil, Esso, and ExxonMobil Chemical. ExxonMobil is incorporated in New Jersey.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.01% per annum.
- XOM price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $117.96 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.78 (5.15%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 139.06% per annum.
- XOM price at the close of April 26, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.52 (0.44%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of XOM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 19, 2022
End date: March 13, 2024
a = 4.7382
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0418
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -2.01%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0418) – 1
= 18.19%
October 19, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y877)
= Exp(a + b × X877 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,269 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7382 + -0.0001 × 1,269 + 2 × 0.0418)
= Exp(4.7511)
= $115.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y877)
= Exp(a + b × X877 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,269 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7382 + -0.0001 × 1,269 – 2 × 0.0418)
= Exp(4.5840)
= $97.90
March 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,227)
= Exp(a + b × X1,227 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,780 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7382 + -0.0001 × 1,780 + 2 × 0.0418)
= Exp(4.7226)
= $112.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,227)
= Exp(a + b × X1,227 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,780 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7382 + -0.0001 × 1,780 – 2 × 0.0418)
= Exp(4.5555)
= $95.15
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.01% per annum.
- XOM price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $117.96 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.78 (5.15%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 10, 2024
End date: April 25, 2024
a = 0.4562
b = 0.0024
s = 0.0184
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0024) – 1
= 139.06%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0184) – 1
= 7.63%
January 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,184)
= Exp(a + b × X1,184 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,717 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4562 + 0.0024 × 1,717 + 2 × 0.0184)
= Exp(4.5928)
= $98.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,184)
= Exp(a + b × X1,184 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,717 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4562 + 0.0024 × 1,717 – 2 × 0.0184)
= Exp(4.5192)
= $91.77
April 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4562 + 0.0024 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0184)
= Exp(4.8459)
= $127.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4562 + 0.0024 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0184)
= Exp(4.7723)
= $118.20
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 139.06% per annum.
- XOM price at the close of April 26, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.52 (0.44%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.