Stock Price Trends

Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM)

Exxon Mobil Corporation, headquartered in Irving, Texas, is a leading American multinational oil and gas company and the largest direct descendant of the historic Standard Oil. Formed in 1999 from the merger of Exxon and Mobil, the company operates on a global scale with a diverse portfolio that includes exploration, production, refining, and distribution of hydrocarbons, as well as a range of petrochemical products. Its well-known brands—Exxon, Mobil, Esso, and ExxonMobil Chemical—underscore its extensive market presence. As a pivotal player in the energy industry, ExxonMobil is strategically focused on enhancing operational efficiency and advancing sustainable practices amidst the evolving energy landscape.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 4.79% per annum.
  • XOM price at the close of December 3, 2025 was $117.80 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 23.21% per annum.
  • XOM price at the close of December 3, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of XOM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: October 19, 2022
End date: December 3, 2025

a = 4.4885

b = 0.0001

s = 0.0504

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 4.79%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0504) – 1
= 22.32%

October 19, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y471)
= Exp(a + b × X471 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 684 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4885 + 0.0001 × 684 + 2 × 0.0504)
= Exp(4.6770)
= $107.44

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y471)
= Exp(a + b × X471 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 684 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4885 + 0.0001 × 684 – 2 × 0.0504)
= Exp(4.4755)
= $87.84

December 3, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4885 + 0.0001 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0504)
= Exp(4.8233)
= $124.37

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4885 + 0.0001 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0504)
= Exp(4.6218)
= $101.68

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 4.79% per annum.
  • XOM price at the close of December 3, 2025 was $117.80 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 4, 2025
End date: December 3, 2025

a = 3.7151

b = 0.0006

s = 0.0242

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 23.21%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0242) – 1
= 10.18%

April 4, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,087)
= Exp(a + b × X1,087 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,582 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7151 + 0.0006 × 1,582 + 2 × 0.0242)
= Exp(4.6683)
= $106.52

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,087)
= Exp(a + b × X1,087 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,582 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7151 + 0.0006 × 1,582 – 2 × 0.0242)
= Exp(4.5714)
= $96.68

December 3, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7151 + 0.0006 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0242)
= Exp(4.8073)
= $122.40

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7151 + 0.0006 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0242)
= Exp(4.7104)
= $111.09

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 23.21% per annum.
  • XOM price at the close of December 3, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

See Also

Symbol

Company name

CVX
Chevron Corp