Hess Corporation (HES)
Hess Corporation (formerly Amerada Hess Corporation) is an American global independent energy company involved in the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 7.73% per annum.
- HES price at the close of May 10, 2024 was $160.40 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 55.60% per annum.
- HES price at the close of May 10, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HES price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 19, 2022
End date: May 10, 2024
a = 4.6465
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0576
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 7.73%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0576) – 1
= 25.93%
October 19, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y867)
= Exp(a + b × X867 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6465 + 0.0002 × 1,255 + 2 × 0.0576)
= Exp(5.0177)
= $151.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y867)
= Exp(a + b × X867 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6465 + 0.0002 × 1,255 – 2 × 0.0576)
= Exp(4.7872)
= $119.97
May 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6465 + 0.0002 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0576)
= Exp(5.1338)
= $169.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6465 + 0.0002 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0576)
= Exp(4.9033)
= $134.73
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 7.73% per annum.
- HES price at the close of May 10, 2024 was $160.40 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 9, 2024
End date: May 10, 2024
a = 2.8667
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0169
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 55.60%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0169) – 1
= 7.00%
January 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,173)
= Exp(a + b × X1,173 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,702 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8667 + 0.0012 × 1,702 + 2 × 0.0169)
= Exp(4.9622)
= $142.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,173)
= Exp(a + b × X1,173 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,702 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8667 + 0.0012 × 1,702 – 2 × 0.0169)
= Exp(4.8945)
= $133.56
May 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8667 + 0.0012 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0169)
= Exp(5.1100)
= $165.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8667 + 0.0012 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0169)
= Exp(5.0423)
= $154.83
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 55.60% per annum.
- HES price at the close of May 10, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.