Stock Price Trends

Dow Inc (DOW)

Dow Inc. is an American commodity chemical company. The company is headquartered in Midland, Michigan.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.90% per annum.
  • DOW price at the close of June 14, 2024 was $55.02 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 40.19% per annum.
  • DOW price at the close of June 14, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.19 (3.83%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DOW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: February 5, 2021
End date: February 14, 2024

a = 4.0277

b = -0.0001

s = 0.0808

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -2.90%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0808) – 1
= 38.14%

February 5, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y414)
= Exp(a + b × X414 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 599 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0277 + -0.0001 × 599 + 2 × 0.0808)
= Exp(4.1410)
= $62.87

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y414)
= Exp(a + b × X414 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 599 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0277 + -0.0001 × 599 – 2 × 0.0808)
= Exp(3.8179)
= $45.51

February 14, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,174)
= Exp(a + b × X1,174 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,703 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0277 + -0.0001 × 1,703 + 2 × 0.0808)
= Exp(4.0521)
= $57.52

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,174)
= Exp(a + b × X1,174 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,703 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0277 + -0.0001 × 1,703 – 2 × 0.0808)
= Exp(3.7290)
= $41.64

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.90% per annum.
  • DOW price at the close of June 14, 2024 was $55.02 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 21, 2023
End date: May 22, 2024

a = 2.4121

b = 0.0009

s = 0.0268

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 40.19%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0268) – 1
= 11.31%

September 21, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,074)
= Exp(a + b × X1,074 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,557 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4121 + 0.0009 × 1,557 + 2 × 0.0268)
= Exp(3.9068)
= $49.74

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,074)
= Exp(a + b × X1,074 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,557 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4121 + 0.0009 × 1,557 – 2 × 0.0268)
= Exp(3.7996)
= $44.68

May 22, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,242)
= Exp(a + b × X1,242 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,801 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4121 + 0.0009 × 1,801 + 2 × 0.0268)
= Exp(4.1326)
= $62.34

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,242)
= Exp(a + b × X1,242 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,801 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4121 + 0.0009 × 1,801 – 2 × 0.0268)
= Exp(4.0255)
= $56.01

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 40.19% per annum.
  • DOW price at the close of June 14, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.19 (3.83%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.