Dow Inc (DOW)
Dow Inc. is an American commodity chemical company. The company is headquartered in Midland, Michigan.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.36% per annum.
- DOW price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $52.85 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 10.69% per annum.
- DOW price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DOW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 6, 2021
End date: February 14, 2024
a = 4.0050
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0818
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -2.36%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0818) – 1
= 38.70%
January 6, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y365)
= Exp(a + b × X365 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 530 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0050 + -0.0001 × 530 + 2 × 0.0818)
= Exp(4.1339)
= $62.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y365)
= Exp(a + b × X365 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 530 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0050 + -0.0001 × 530 – 2 × 0.0818)
= Exp(3.8068)
= $45.01
February 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,146)
= Exp(a + b × X1,146 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,664 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0050 + -0.0001 × 1,664 + 2 × 0.0818)
= Exp(4.0597)
= $57.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,146)
= Exp(a + b × X1,146 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,664 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0050 + -0.0001 × 1,664 – 2 × 0.0818)
= Exp(3.7326)
= $41.79
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.36% per annum.
- DOW price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $52.85 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 22, 2022
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 3.5185
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0596
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 10.69%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0596) – 1
= 26.90%
June 22, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y732)
= Exp(a + b × X732 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,062 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5185 + 0.0003 × 1,062 + 2 × 0.0596)
= Exp(3.9332)
= $51.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y732)
= Exp(a + b × X732 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,062 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5185 + 0.0003 × 1,062 – 2 × 0.0596)
= Exp(3.6950)
= $40.24
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5185 + 0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0596)
= Exp(4.1458)
= $63.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5185 + 0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0596)
= Exp(3.9076)
= $49.78
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 10.69% per annum.
- DOW price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.