Dow Inc (DOW)
Dow Inc. is an American commodity chemical company. The company is headquartered in Midland, Michigan.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.36% per annum.
- DOW price at the close of October 11, 2024 was $53.78 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 9.15% per annum.
- DOW price at the close of October 11, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DOW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 6, 2021
End date: February 14, 2024
a = 3.9868
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0818
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -2.36%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0818) – 1
= 38.69%
January 6, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y310)
= Exp(a + b × X310 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 450 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9868 + -0.0001 × 450 + 2 × 0.0818)
= Exp(4.1209)
= $61.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y310)
= Exp(a + b × X310 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 450 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9868 + -0.0001 × 450 – 2 × 0.0818)
= Exp(3.7938)
= $44.43
February 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,091)
= Exp(a + b × X1,091 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,584 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9868 + -0.0001 × 1,584 + 2 × 0.0818)
= Exp(4.0467)
= $57.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,091)
= Exp(a + b × X1,091 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,584 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9868 + -0.0001 × 1,584 – 2 × 0.0818)
= Exp(3.7196)
= $41.25
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.36% per annum.
- DOW price at the close of October 11, 2024 was $53.78 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 22, 2022
End date: October 11, 2024
a = 3.5757
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0593
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 9.15%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0593) – 1
= 26.77%
June 22, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y677)
= Exp(a + b × X677 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 982 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5757 + 0.0002 × 982 + 2 × 0.0593)
= Exp(3.9299)
= $50.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y677)
= Exp(a + b × X677 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 982 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5757 + 0.0002 × 982 – 2 × 0.0593)
= Exp(3.6927)
= $40.15
October 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5757 + 0.0002 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0593)
= Exp(4.1319)
= $62.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5757 + 0.0002 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0593)
= Exp(3.8947)
= $49.14
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 9.15% per annum.
- DOW price at the close of October 11, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.