Dow Inc (DOW)

Dow Inc. is an American commodity chemical company. The company is headquartered in Midland, Michigan.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

• The primary trend is decreasing.
• The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.90% per annum.
• DOW price at the close of June 14, 2024 was \$55.02 and was inside the primary price channel.
• The secondary trend is increasing.
• The growth rate of the secondary trend is 40.19% per annum.
• DOW price at the close of June 14, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by \$2.19 (3.83%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
• The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DOW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

Primary Trend

Start date: February 5, 2021
End date: February 14, 2024

a = 4.0277

b = -0.0001

s = 0.0808

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -2.90%

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0808) – 1
= 38.14%

February 5, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y414)
= Exp(a + b × X414 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 599 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0277 + -0.0001 × 599 + 2 × 0.0808)
= Exp(4.1410)
= \$62.87

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y414)
= Exp(a + b × X414 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 599 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0277 + -0.0001 × 599 – 2 × 0.0808)
= Exp(3.8179)
= \$45.51

February 14, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,174)
= Exp(a + b × X1,174 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,703 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0277 + -0.0001 × 1,703 + 2 × 0.0808)
= Exp(4.0521)
= \$57.52

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,174)
= Exp(a + b × X1,174 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,703 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0277 + -0.0001 × 1,703 – 2 × 0.0808)
= Exp(3.7290)
= \$41.64

Description

• The primary trend is decreasing.
• The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.90% per annum.
• DOW price at the close of June 14, 2024 was \$55.02 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 21, 2023
End date: May 22, 2024

a = 2.4121

b = 0.0009

s = 0.0268

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 40.19%

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0268) – 1
= 11.31%

September 21, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,074)
= Exp(a + b × X1,074 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,557 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4121 + 0.0009 × 1,557 + 2 × 0.0268)
= Exp(3.9068)
= \$49.74

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,074)
= Exp(a + b × X1,074 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,557 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4121 + 0.0009 × 1,557 – 2 × 0.0268)
= Exp(3.7996)
= \$44.68

May 22, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,242)
= Exp(a + b × X1,242 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,801 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4121 + 0.0009 × 1,801 + 2 × 0.0268)
= Exp(4.1326)
= \$62.34

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,242)
= Exp(a + b × X1,242 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,801 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4121 + 0.0009 × 1,801 – 2 × 0.0268)
= Exp(4.0255)
= \$56.01

Description

• The secondary trend is increasing.
• The growth rate of the secondary trend is 40.19% per annum.
• DOW price at the close of June 14, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by \$2.19 (3.83%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.