# Dow Inc (DOW)

Dow Inc. is an American commodity chemical company. The company is headquartered in Midland, Michigan.

## Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

#### Key facts

- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.90% per annum.
- DOW price at the close of June 14, 2024 was $55.02 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 40.19% per annum.
- DOW price at the close of June 14, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.19 (3.83%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

### Linear Regression Model

Model equation:

Y_{i} = α + β × X_{i} + ε_{i}

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number

Y_{i} - natural logarithm of DOW price

X_{i} - time index, 1 day interval

σ - standard deviation of ε_{i}

a - estimator of α

b - estimator of β

s - estimator of σ

Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

### Primary Trend

Start date: February 5, 2021

End date: February 14, 2024

a = 4.0277

b = -0.0001

s = 0.0808

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1

= -2.90%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.0808) – 1

= 38.14%

#### February 5, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{414})

= Exp(a + b × X_{414} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 599 + 2 × s)

= Exp(4.0277 + -0.0001 × 599 + 2 × 0.0808)

= Exp(4.1410)

= $62.87

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{414})

= Exp(a + b × X_{414} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 599 – 2 × s)

= Exp(4.0277 + -0.0001 × 599 – 2 × 0.0808)

= Exp(3.8179)

= $45.51

#### February 14, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,174})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,174} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,703 + 2 × s)

= Exp(4.0277 + -0.0001 × 1,703 + 2 × 0.0808)

= Exp(4.0521)

= $57.52

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,174})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,174} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,703 – 2 × s)

= Exp(4.0277 + -0.0001 × 1,703 – 2 × 0.0808)

= Exp(3.7290)

= $41.64

#### Description

- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.90% per annum.
- DOW price at the close of June 14, 2024 was $55.02 and was inside the primary price channel.

### Secondary Trend

Start date: September 21, 2023

End date: May 22, 2024

a = 2.4121

b = 0.0009

s = 0.0268

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1

= 40.19%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.0268) – 1

= 11.31%

#### September 21, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,074})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,074} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,557 + 2 × s)

= Exp(2.4121 + 0.0009 × 1,557 + 2 × 0.0268)

= Exp(3.9068)

= $49.74

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,074})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,074} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,557 – 2 × s)

= Exp(2.4121 + 0.0009 × 1,557 – 2 × 0.0268)

= Exp(3.7996)

= $44.68

#### May 22, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,242})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,242} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,801 + 2 × s)

= Exp(2.4121 + 0.0009 × 1,801 + 2 × 0.0268)

= Exp(4.1326)

= $62.34

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,242})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,242} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,801 – 2 × s)

= Exp(2.4121 + 0.0009 × 1,801 – 2 × 0.0268)

= Exp(4.0255)

= $56.01

#### Description

- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 40.19% per annum.
- DOW price at the close of June 14, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.19 (3.83%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.