Koppers Holdings Inc (KOP)
Koppers Holdings Inc. offers treated wood products, wood treatment chemicals, and carbon compounds in the United States, Australasia, Europe, and internationally. The company is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 58.21% per annum.
- KOP price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $39.58 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $9.94 (20.07%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 70.70% per annum.
- KOP price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KOP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 22, 2022
End date: May 2, 2024
a = 1.7884
b = 0.0013
s = 0.0905
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 58.21%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0905) – 1
= 43.63%
April 22, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y691)
= Exp(a + b × X691 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,001 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7884 + 0.0013 × 1,001 + 2 × 0.0905)
= Exp(3.2275)
= $25.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y691)
= Exp(a + b × X691 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,001 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7884 + 0.0013 × 1,001 – 2 × 0.0905)
= Exp(2.8654)
= $17.56
May 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,200)
= Exp(a + b × X1,200 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,742 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7884 + 0.0013 × 1,742 + 2 × 0.0905)
= Exp(4.1588)
= $63.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,200)
= Exp(a + b × X1,200 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,742 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7884 + 0.0013 × 1,742 – 2 × 0.0905)
= Exp(3.7967)
= $44.55
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 58.21% per annum.
- KOP price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $39.58 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $9.94 (20.07%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 28, 2024
End date: July 24, 2024
a = 9.7163
b = -0.0034
s = 0.0599
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0034) – 1
= -70.70%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0599) – 1
= 27.06%
February 28, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,155)
= Exp(a + b × X1,155 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,678 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.7163 + -0.0034 × 1,678 + 2 × 0.0599)
= Exp(4.1932)
= $66.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,155)
= Exp(a + b × X1,155 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,678 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.7163 + -0.0034 × 1,678 – 2 × 0.0599)
= Exp(3.9537)
= $52.13
July 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.7163 + -0.0034 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0599)
= Exp(3.6988)
= $40.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.7163 + -0.0034 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0599)
= Exp(3.4594)
= $31.80
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 70.70% per annum.
- KOP price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.