Hawkins Inc (HWKN)
Hawkins, Inc. blends, manufactures, and distributes chemicals and other specialty ingredients in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Roseville, Minnesota.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 81.27% per annum.
- HWKN price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $104.33 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.66 (0.63%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 155.49% per annum.
- HWKN price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HWKN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 16, 2022
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 1.5506
b = 0.0016
s = 0.0575
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 81.27%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0575) – 1
= 25.86%
December 16, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y856)
= Exp(a + b × X856 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,239 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5506 + 0.0016 × 1,239 + 2 × 0.0575)
= Exp(3.6847)
= $39.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y856)
= Exp(a + b × X856 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,239 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5506 + 0.0016 × 1,239 – 2 × 0.0575)
= Exp(3.4547)
= $31.65
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5506 + 0.0016 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0575)
= Exp(4.6412)
= $103.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5506 + 0.0016 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0575)
= Exp(4.4113)
= $82.37
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 81.27% per annum.
- HWKN price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $104.33 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.66 (0.63%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 1, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = -0.0925
b = 0.0026
s = 0.0421
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0026) – 1
= 155.49%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0421) – 1
= 18.35%
February 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,137)
= Exp(a + b × X1,137 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,651 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0925 + 0.0026 × 1,651 + 2 × 0.0421)
= Exp(4.2347)
= $69.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,137)
= Exp(a + b × X1,137 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,651 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0925 + 0.0026 × 1,651 – 2 × 0.0421)
= Exp(4.0662)
= $58.34
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0925 + 0.0026 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0421)
= Exp(4.6844)
= $108.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0925 + 0.0026 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0421)
= Exp(4.5160)
= $91.47
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 155.49% per annum.
- HWKN price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.