Duolingo Inc (DUOL)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 76.09% per annum.
- DUOL price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $384.34 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 16.95% per annum.
- DUOL price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DUOL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 26, 2022
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 3.7972
b = 0.0016
s = 0.1678
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 76.09%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1678) – 1
= 95.68%
August 26, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y273)
= Exp(a + b × X273 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 394 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7972 + 0.0016 × 394 + 2 × 0.1678)
= Exp(4.7436)
= $114.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y273)
= Exp(a + b × X273 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 394 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7972 + 0.0016 × 394 – 2 × 0.1678)
= Exp(4.0723)
= $58.69
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y941)
= Exp(a + b × X941 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,370 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7972 + 0.0016 × 1,370 + 2 × 0.1678)
= Exp(6.2565)
= $521.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y941)
= Exp(a + b × X941 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,370 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7972 + 0.0016 × 1,370 – 2 × 0.1678)
= Exp(5.5852)
= $266.46
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 76.09% per annum.
- DUOL price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $384.34 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 20, 2024
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 6.4844
b = -0.0005
s = 0.1026
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -16.95%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1026) – 1
= 50.76%
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y835)
= Exp(a + b × X835 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,211 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4844 + -0.0005 × 1,211 + 2 × 0.1026)
= Exp(6.0736)
= $434.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y835)
= Exp(a + b × X835 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,211 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4844 + -0.0005 × 1,211 – 2 × 0.1026)
= Exp(5.6631)
= $288.04
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y941)
= Exp(a + b × X941 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,370 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4844 + -0.0005 × 1,370 + 2 × 0.1026)
= Exp(5.9928)
= $400.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y941)
= Exp(a + b × X941 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,370 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4844 + -0.0005 × 1,370 – 2 × 0.1026)
= Exp(5.5822)
= $265.66
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 16.95% per annum.
- DUOL price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.