# Adtalem Global Education Inc (ATGE)

Adtalem Global Education Inc. provides educational services worldwide. The company is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

## Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

#### Key facts

- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 32.84% per annum.
- ATGE price at the close of April 16, 2024 was $45.68 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 49.39% per annum.
- ATGE price at the close of April 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

### Linear Regression Model

Model equation:

Y_{i} = α + β × X_{i} + ε_{i}

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number

Y_{i} - natural logarithm of ATGE price

X_{i} - time index, 1 day interval

σ - standard deviation of ε_{i}

a - estimator of α

b - estimator of β

s - estimator of σ

Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

### Primary Trend

Start date: November 18, 2021

End date: April 9, 2024

a = 2.5835

b = 0.0008

s = 0.1075

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1

= 32.84%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.1075) – 1

= 53.73%

#### November 18, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{654})

= Exp(a + b × X_{654} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 946 + 2 × s)

= Exp(2.5835 + 0.0008 × 946 + 2 × 0.1075)

= Exp(3.5344)

= $34.28

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{654})

= Exp(a + b × X_{654} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 946 – 2 × s)

= Exp(2.5835 + 0.0008 × 946 – 2 × 0.1075)

= Exp(3.1044)

= $22.30

#### April 9, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,252})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,252} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,819 + 2 × s)

= Exp(2.5835 + 0.0008 × 1,819 + 2 × 0.1075)

= Exp(4.2136)

= $67.60

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,252})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,252} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,819 – 2 × s)

= Exp(2.5835 + 0.0008 × 1,819 – 2 × 0.1075)

= Exp(3.7836)

= $43.97

#### Description

- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 32.84% per annum.
- ATGE price at the close of April 16, 2024 was $45.68 and was inside the primary price channel.

### Secondary Trend

Start date: November 22, 2023

End date: April 16, 2024

a = 7.2494

b = -0.0019

s = 0.0613

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × -0.0019) – 1

= -49.39%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.0613) – 1

= 27.77%

#### November 22, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,159})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,159} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,680 + 2 × s)

= Exp(7.2494 + -0.0019 × 1,680 + 2 × 0.0613)

= Exp(4.2378)

= $69.26

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,159})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,159} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,680 – 2 × s)

= Exp(7.2494 + -0.0019 × 1,680 – 2 × 0.0613)

= Exp(3.9928)

= $54.20

#### April 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,257})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,257} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)

= Exp(7.2494 + -0.0019 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0613)

= Exp(3.9655)

= $52.74

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,257})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,257} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)

= Exp(7.2494 + -0.0019 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0613)

= Exp(3.7204)

= $41.28

#### Description

- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 49.39% per annum.
- ATGE price at the close of April 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.