Stock Price Trends

Adtalem Global Education Inc (ATGE)

Adtalem Global Education Inc. provides educational services worldwide. The company is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 32.84% per annum.
  • ATGE price at the close of April 16, 2024 was $45.68 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 49.39% per annum.
  • ATGE price at the close of April 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ATGE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: November 18, 2021
End date: April 9, 2024

a = 2.5835

b = 0.0008

s = 0.1075

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 32.84%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1075) – 1
= 53.73%

November 18, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y654)
= Exp(a + b × X654 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 946 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5835 + 0.0008 × 946 + 2 × 0.1075)
= Exp(3.5344)
= $34.28

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y654)
= Exp(a + b × X654 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 946 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5835 + 0.0008 × 946 – 2 × 0.1075)
= Exp(3.1044)
= $22.30

April 9, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,819 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5835 + 0.0008 × 1,819 + 2 × 0.1075)
= Exp(4.2136)
= $67.60

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,819 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5835 + 0.0008 × 1,819 – 2 × 0.1075)
= Exp(3.7836)
= $43.97

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 32.84% per annum.
  • ATGE price at the close of April 16, 2024 was $45.68 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 22, 2023
End date: April 16, 2024

a = 7.2494

b = -0.0019

s = 0.0613

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0019) – 1
= -49.39%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0613) – 1
= 27.77%

November 22, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,159)
= Exp(a + b × X1,159 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,680 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2494 + -0.0019 × 1,680 + 2 × 0.0613)
= Exp(4.2378)
= $69.26

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,159)
= Exp(a + b × X1,159 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,680 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2494 + -0.0019 × 1,680 – 2 × 0.0613)
= Exp(3.9928)
= $54.20

April 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2494 + -0.0019 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0613)
= Exp(3.9655)
= $52.74

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2494 + -0.0019 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0613)
= Exp(3.7204)
= $41.28

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 49.39% per annum.
  • ATGE price at the close of April 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.