Stock Price Trends

Stride, Inc. (LRN)

k12 inc. is driving innovation and advancing the quality of education by delivering state-of-the-art, digital learning platforms and technology to students and school districts across the globe. we believe that every student is uniquely brilliant and deserves a high-quality education to help them thrive in school and ultimately, be prepared for post-secondary education, going on to a career, and reaching their personal potential. with engaging curriculum developed by master teachers, cognitive scientists, technologists, and interactive designers, k12 serves over 2,000 schools and school districts and has delivered more than four million courses over the past decade. the company is made up of thousands of online school educators providing instruction, academic services, and learning solutions to public schools and districts, traditional classrooms, blended school programs, and directly to families. the k12 program is offered through k12 partner public schools in 33 states and the distri

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

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Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 178.51% per annum.
  • LRN price at the close of March 1, 2024 was $61.12 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.68 (5.67%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 12.80% per annum.
  • LRN price at the close of March 1, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LRN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date:
End date:

a =

b =

s =

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × ) – 1
=

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × ) – 1
=

June 15, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

January 24, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 178.51% per annum.
  • LRN price at the close of March 1, 2024 was $61.12 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.68 (5.67%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date:
End date:

a =

b =

s =

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × ) – 1
=

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × ) – 1
=

November 29, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

February 29, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 12.80% per annum.
  • LRN price at the close of March 1, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.