Stride Inc (LRN)
Stride, Inc., a technology-based education company, provides its own and third-party online educational services, software systems and curricula to facilitate individualized learning for students primarily in kindergarten through grade 12 (K -12) in the United States and internationally. .
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 60.20% per annum.
- LRN price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $73.36 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 6.73% per annum.
- LRN price at the close of July 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.09 (1.51%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LRN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 26, 2022
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 1.9240
b = 0.0013
s = 0.0881
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 60.20%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0881) – 1
= 42.27%
October 26, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y819)
= Exp(a + b × X819 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,185 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9240 + 0.0013 × 1,185 + 2 × 0.0881)
= Exp(3.6301)
= $37.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y819)
= Exp(a + b × X819 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,185 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9240 + 0.0013 × 1,185 – 2 × 0.0881)
= Exp(3.2776)
= $26.51
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9240 + 0.0013 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0881)
= Exp(4.4551)
= $86.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9240 + 0.0013 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0881)
= Exp(4.1026)
= $60.50
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 60.20% per annum.
- LRN price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $73.36 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 3, 2024
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 4.5844
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0221
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -6.73%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0221) – 1
= 9.24%
May 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,200)
= Exp(a + b × X1,200 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,740 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5844 + -0.0002 × 1,740 + 2 × 0.0221)
= Exp(4.2964)
= $73.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,200)
= Exp(a + b × X1,200 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,740 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5844 + -0.0002 × 1,740 – 2 × 0.0221)
= Exp(4.2081)
= $67.23
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5844 + -0.0002 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0221)
= Exp(4.2804)
= $72.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5844 + -0.0002 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0221)
= Exp(4.1921)
= $66.16
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 6.73% per annum.
- LRN price at the close of July 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.09 (1.51%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.