Graham Holdings Co (GHC)
Graham Holdings Company is a diversified global media and education company. The company is headquartered in Arlington, Virginia.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 41.54% per annum.
- GHC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $811.10 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 7.18% per annum.
- GHC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $28.91 (3.70%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GHC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 24, 2023
End date: June 5, 2024
a = 4.9527
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0377
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 41.54%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0377) – 1
= 16.28%
May 24, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y964)
= Exp(a + b × X964 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,398 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9527 + 0.0010 × 1,398 + 2 × 0.0377)
= Exp(6.3588)
= $577.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y964)
= Exp(a + b × X964 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,398 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9527 + 0.0010 × 1,398 – 2 × 0.0377)
= Exp(6.2080)
= $496.72
June 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,223)
= Exp(a + b × X1,223 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,776 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9527 + 0.0010 × 1,776 + 2 × 0.0377)
= Exp(6.7186)
= $827.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,223)
= Exp(a + b × X1,223 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,776 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9527 + 0.0010 × 1,776 – 2 × 0.0377)
= Exp(6.5678)
= $711.83
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 41.54% per annum.
- GHC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $811.10 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 20, 2023
End date: July 15, 2024
a = 6.2504
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0324
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 7.18%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0324) – 1
= 13.85%
December 20, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,109)
= Exp(a + b × X1,109 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,608 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2504 + 0.0002 × 1,608 + 2 × 0.0324)
= Exp(6.6207)
= $750.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,109)
= Exp(a + b × X1,109 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,608 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2504 + 0.0002 × 1,608 – 2 × 0.0324)
= Exp(6.4910)
= $659.15
July 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,816 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2504 + 0.0002 × 1,816 + 2 × 0.0324)
= Exp(6.6602)
= $780.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,816 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2504 + 0.0002 × 1,816 – 2 × 0.0324)
= Exp(6.5305)
= $685.72
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 7.18% per annum.
- GHC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $28.91 (3.70%).