ELF Beauty Inc (ELF)
elf Beauty, Inc., offers skin care and cosmetic products under the elf, W3LL PEOPLE and Keys Soulcare brand names worldwide. The company is headquartered in Oakland, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 242.93% per annum.
- ELF price at the close of May 7, 2024 was $163.61 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $92.60 (36.14%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 110.92% per annum.
- ELF price at the close of May 7, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ELF price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 17, 2022
End date: September 18, 2023
a = -0.4411
b = 0.0034
s = 0.0890
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0034) – 1
= 242.93%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0890) – 1
= 42.78%
February 17, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y702)
= Exp(a + b × X702 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,016 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4411 + 0.0034 × 1,016 + 2 × 0.0890)
= Exp(3.1673)
= $23.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y702)
= Exp(a + b × X702 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,016 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4411 + 0.0034 × 1,016 – 2 × 0.0890)
= Exp(2.8112)
= $16.63
September 18, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,098)
= Exp(a + b × X1,098 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,594 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4411 + 0.0034 × 1,594 + 2 × 0.0890)
= Exp(5.1188)
= $167.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,098)
= Exp(a + b × X1,098 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,594 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4411 + 0.0034 × 1,594 – 2 × 0.0890)
= Exp(4.7627)
= $117.06
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 242.93% per annum.
- ELF price at the close of May 7, 2024 was $163.61 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $92.60 (36.14%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 2, 2023
End date: May 7, 2024
a = 1.5118
b = 0.0020
s = 0.1245
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0020) – 1
= 110.92%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1245) – 1
= 64.57%
February 2, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y942)
= Exp(a + b × X942 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,366 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5118 + 0.0020 × 1,366 + 2 × 0.1245)
= Exp(4.5539)
= $95.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y942)
= Exp(a + b × X942 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,366 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5118 + 0.0020 × 1,366 – 2 × 0.1245)
= Exp(4.0557)
= $57.73
May 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5118 + 0.0020 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1245)
= Exp(5.4944)
= $243.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5118 + 0.0020 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1245)
= Exp(4.9963)
= $147.86
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 110.92% per annum.
- ELF price at the close of May 7, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.