Procter & Gamble Company (PG)
The Procter & Gamble Company (P&G) is an American multinational consumer goods corporation headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio, founded in 1837 by William Procter and James Gamble. It specializes in a wide range of personal health, consumer health, personal care, and hygiene products; these products are organized into several segments including Beauty; Grooming; Health Care; Fabric & Home Care; and Baby, Feminine, & Family Care. Before the sale of Pringles to Kellogg's, its product portfolio also included food, snacks, and beverages.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 2.88% per annum.
- PG price at the close of May 1, 2024 was $163.40 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 11.72% per annum.
- PG price at the close of May 1, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 23, 2021
End date: January 24, 2024
a = 4.8536
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0524
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 2.88%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0524) – 1
= 23.33%
July 23, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y561)
= Exp(a + b × X561 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 813 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8536 + 0.0001 × 813 + 2 × 0.0524)
= Exp(5.0217)
= $151.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y561)
= Exp(a + b × X561 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 813 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8536 + 0.0001 × 813 – 2 × 0.0524)
= Exp(4.8120)
= $122.98
January 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,190)
= Exp(a + b × X1,190 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,728 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8536 + 0.0001 × 1,728 + 2 × 0.0524)
= Exp(5.0930)
= $162.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,190)
= Exp(a + b × X1,190 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,728 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8536 + 0.0001 × 1,728 – 2 × 0.0524)
= Exp(4.8833)
= $132.06
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 2.88% per annum.
- PG price at the close of May 1, 2024 was $163.40 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 26, 2022
End date: May 1, 2024
a = 4.5133
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0402
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 11.72%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0402) – 1
= 17.45%
August 26, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y837)
= Exp(a + b × X837 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,212 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5133 + 0.0003 × 1,212 + 2 × 0.0402)
= Exp(4.9618)
= $142.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y837)
= Exp(a + b × X837 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,212 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5133 + 0.0003 × 1,212 – 2 × 0.0402)
= Exp(4.8010)
= $121.63
May 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5133 + 0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0402)
= Exp(5.1483)
= $172.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5133 + 0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0402)
= Exp(4.9875)
= $146.56
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 11.72% per annum.
- PG price at the close of May 1, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.