Estee Lauder Companies Inc (EL)
The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. is an American multinational manufacturer and marketer of prestige skincare, makeup, fragrance and hair care products, based in Midtown Manhattan, New York City. The company owns a diverse portfolio of brands, distributed internationally through both digital commerce and retail channels.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 29.50% per annum.
- EL price at the close of April 25, 2024 was $144.99 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 55.58% per annum.
- EL price at the close of April 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of EL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 29, 2021
End date: April 25, 2024
a = 6.6465
b = -0.0010
s = 0.1194
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -29.50%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1194) – 1
= 61.23%
June 29, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y548)
= Exp(a + b × X548 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 795 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6465 + -0.0010 × 795 + 2 × 0.1194)
= Exp(6.1240)
= $456.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y548)
= Exp(a + b × X548 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 795 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6465 + -0.0010 × 795 – 2 × 0.1194)
= Exp(5.6463)
= $283.26
April 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6465 + -0.0010 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1194)
= Exp(5.1367)
= $170.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6465 + -0.0010 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1194)
= Exp(4.6590)
= $105.53
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 29.50% per annum.
- EL price at the close of April 25, 2024 was $144.99 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 27, 2023
End date: April 25, 2024
a = 2.8171
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0587
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 55.58%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0587) – 1
= 26.44%
October 27, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,135)
= Exp(a + b × X1,135 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,645 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8171 + 0.0012 × 1,645 + 2 × 0.0587)
= Exp(4.9265)
= $137.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,135)
= Exp(a + b × X1,135 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,645 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8171 + 0.0012 × 1,645 – 2 × 0.0587)
= Exp(4.6919)
= $109.06
April 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8171 + 0.0012 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0587)
= Exp(5.1457)
= $171.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8171 + 0.0012 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0587)
= Exp(4.9111)
= $135.79
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 55.58% per annum.
- EL price at the close of April 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.