Coty Inc (COTY)
Coty Inc. is a leading global beauty company that specializes in manufacturing, marketing, and distributing a diverse portfolio of cosmetics, skincare, fragrances, and hair color products. Headquartered in New York, the company boasts a rich heritage and a strong presence in the beauty market, serving a wide array of consumers with innovative and high-quality offerings. With a strategic focus on sustainability and digital transformation, Coty is well-positioned to capitalize on evolving consumer trends and enhance its market share in the competitive beauty landscape.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 52.30% per annum.
- COTY price at the close of March 9, 2026 was $2.30 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.17 (7.03%).
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 64.32% per annum.
- COTY price at the close of March 9, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of COTY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 26, 2024
End date: March 3, 2026
a = 4.7462
b = -0.0020
s = 0.0698
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0020) – 1
= -52.30%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0698) – 1
= 32.22%
January 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y725)
= Exp(a + b × X725 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,052 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7462 + -0.0020 × 1,052 + 2 × 0.0698)
= Exp(2.7526)
= $15.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y725)
= Exp(a + b × X725 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,052 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7462 + -0.0020 × 1,052 – 2 × 0.0698)
= Exp(2.4733)
= $11.86
March 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,819 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7462 + -0.0020 × 1,819 + 2 × 0.0698)
= Exp(1.1973)
= $3.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,819 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7462 + -0.0020 × 1,819 – 2 × 0.0698)
= Exp(0.9179)
= $2.50
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 52.30% per annum.
- COTY price at the close of March 9, 2026 was $2.30 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.17 (7.03%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 2, 2025
End date: March 9, 2026
a = 6.1052
b = -0.0028
s = 0.0631
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0028) – 1
= -64.32%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0631) – 1
= 28.73%
July 2, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,083)
= Exp(a + b × X1,083 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,575 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1052 + -0.0028 × 1,575 + 2 × 0.0631)
= Exp(1.7843)
= $5.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,083)
= Exp(a + b × X1,083 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,575 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1052 + -0.0028 × 1,575 – 2 × 0.0631)
= Exp(1.5318)
= $4.63
March 9, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1052 + -0.0028 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0631)
= Exp(1.0785)
= $2.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1052 + -0.0028 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0631)
= Exp(0.8259)
= $2.28
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 64.32% per annum.
- COTY price at the close of March 9, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.