Coty Inc (COTY)
Coty Inc., manufactures, markets, distributes and sells beauty products worldwide. The company is headquartered in New York, New York.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 53.37% per annum.
- COTY price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $5.02 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 62.11% per annum.
- COTY price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of COTY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 20, 2024
End date: April 29, 2025
a = 5.4857
b = -0.0021
s = 0.0623
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0021) – 1
= -53.37%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0623) – 1
= 28.28%
February 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y957)
= Exp(a + b × X957 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,391 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4857 + -0.0021 × 1,391 + 2 × 0.0623)
= Exp(2.7030)
= $14.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y957)
= Exp(a + b × X957 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,391 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4857 + -0.0021 × 1,391 – 2 × 0.0623)
= Exp(2.4540)
= $11.63
April 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4857 + -0.0021 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0623)
= Exp(1.7960)
= $6.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4857 + -0.0021 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0623)
= Exp(1.5469)
= $4.70
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 53.37% per annum.
- COTY price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $5.02 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 16, 2024
End date: April 29, 2025
a = 6.4630
b = -0.0027
s = 0.0597
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0027) – 1
= -62.11%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0597) – 1
= 27.00%
August 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,081)
= Exp(a + b × X1,081 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,569 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4630 + -0.0027 × 1,569 + 2 × 0.0597)
= Exp(2.4106)
= $11.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,081)
= Exp(a + b × X1,081 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,569 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4630 + -0.0027 × 1,569 – 2 × 0.0597)
= Exp(2.1716)
= $8.77
April 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4630 + -0.0027 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0597)
= Exp(1.7299)
= $5.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4630 + -0.0027 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0597)
= Exp(1.4909)
= $4.44
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 62.11% per annum.
- COTY price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.