Coty Inc (COTY)
Coty Inc. is a leading global beauty company that specializes in manufacturing, marketing, and distributing a diverse portfolio of cosmetics, skincare, fragrances, and hair color products. Headquartered in New York, the company boasts a rich heritage and a strong presence in the beauty market, serving a wide array of consumers with innovative and high-quality offerings. With a strategic focus on sustainability and digital transformation, Coty is well-positioned to capitalize on evolving consumer trends and enhance its market share in the competitive beauty landscape.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 51.55% per annum.
- COTY price at the close of February 13, 2026 was $2.51 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.16 (5.91%).
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 62.23% per annum.
- COTY price at the close of February 13, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of COTY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 22, 2024
End date: February 6, 2026
a = 4.7306
b = -0.0020
s = 0.0662
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0020) – 1
= -51.55%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0662) – 1
= 30.33%
January 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y736)
= Exp(a + b × X736 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,069 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7306 + -0.0020 × 1,069 + 2 × 0.0662)
= Exp(2.7410)
= $15.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y736)
= Exp(a + b × X736 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,069 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7306 + -0.0020 × 1,069 – 2 × 0.0662)
= Exp(2.4760)
= $11.89
February 6, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,815 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7306 + -0.0020 × 1,815 + 2 × 0.0662)
= Exp(1.2600)
= $3.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,815 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7306 + -0.0020 × 1,815 – 2 × 0.0662)
= Exp(0.9951)
= $2.71
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 51.55% per annum.
- COTY price at the close of February 13, 2026 was $2.51 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.16 (5.91%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 2, 2025
End date: February 13, 2026
a = 5.9035
b = -0.0027
s = 0.0620
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0027) – 1
= -62.23%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0620) – 1
= 28.15%
July 2, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,098)
= Exp(a + b × X1,098 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,596 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9035 + -0.0027 × 1,596 + 2 × 0.0620)
= Exp(1.7697)
= $5.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,098)
= Exp(a + b × X1,098 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,596 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9035 + -0.0027 × 1,596 – 2 × 0.0620)
= Exp(1.5217)
= $4.58
February 13, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9035 + -0.0027 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0620)
= Exp(1.1668)
= $3.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9035 + -0.0027 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0620)
= Exp(0.9187)
= $2.51
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 62.23% per annum.
- COTY price at the close of February 13, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.