Coty Inc (COTY)
Coty Inc. is a leading global beauty company that specializes in manufacturing, marketing, and distributing a diverse portfolio of cosmetics, skincare, fragrances, and hair color products. Headquartered in New York, the company boasts a rich heritage and a strong presence in the beauty market, serving a wide array of consumers with innovative and high-quality offerings. With a strategic focus on sustainability and digital transformation, Coty is well-positioned to capitalize on evolving consumer trends and enhance its market share in the competitive beauty landscape.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 51.41% per annum.
- COTY price at the close of December 26, 2025 was $3.10 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 80.96% per annum.
- COTY price at the close of December 26, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of COTY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 22, 2024
End date: December 26, 2025
a = 4.8211
b = -0.0020
s = 0.0670
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0020) – 1
= -51.41%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0670) – 1
= 30.71%
January 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y770)
= Exp(a + b × X770 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,120 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8211 + -0.0020 × 1,120 + 2 × 0.0670)
= Exp(2.7405)
= $15.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y770)
= Exp(a + b × X770 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,120 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8211 + -0.0020 × 1,120 – 2 × 0.0670)
= Exp(2.4727)
= $11.85
December 26, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8211 + -0.0020 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0670)
= Exp(1.3486)
= $3.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8211 + -0.0020 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0670)
= Exp(1.0808)
= $2.95
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 51.41% per annum.
- COTY price at the close of December 26, 2025 was $3.10 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 8, 2025
End date: December 26, 2025
a = 9.3905
b = -0.0045
s = 0.0428
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0045) – 1
= -80.96%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0428) – 1
= 18.68%
October 8, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,200)
= Exp(a + b × X1,200 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,745 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3905 + -0.0045 × 1,745 + 2 × 0.0428)
= Exp(1.5461)
= $4.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,200)
= Exp(a + b × X1,200 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,745 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3905 + -0.0045 × 1,745 – 2 × 0.0428)
= Exp(1.3748)
= $3.95
December 26, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3905 + -0.0045 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0428)
= Exp(1.1870)
= $3.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3905 + -0.0045 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0428)
= Exp(1.0158)
= $2.76
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 80.96% per annum.
- COTY price at the close of December 26, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.