Coty Inc (COTY)
Coty Inc., manufactures, markets, distributes and sells beauty products worldwide. The company is headquartered in New York, New York.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 26.62% per annum.
- COTY price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $10.89 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 14.24% per annum.
- COTY price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of COTY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 16, 2020
End date: May 7, 2024
a = 1.4009
b = 0.0006
s = 0.2274
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 26.62%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2274) – 1
= 148.34%
March 16, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y214)
= Exp(a + b × X214 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 312 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4009 + 0.0006 × 312 + 2 × 0.2274)
= Exp(2.0574)
= $7.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y214)
= Exp(a + b × X214 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 312 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4009 + 0.0006 × 312 – 2 × 0.2274)
= Exp(1.1478)
= $3.15
May 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4009 + 0.0006 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.2274)
= Exp(3.0359)
= $20.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4009 + 0.0006 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.2274)
= Exp(2.1262)
= $8.38
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 26.62% per annum.
- COTY price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $10.89 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 23, 2020
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 1.7904
b = 0.0004
s = 0.1495
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 14.24%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1495) – 1
= 81.81%
November 23, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y390)
= Exp(a + b × X390 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 564 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7904 + 0.0004 × 564 + 2 × 0.1495)
= Exp(2.2950)
= $9.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y390)
= Exp(a + b × X390 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 564 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7904 + 0.0004 × 564 – 2 × 0.1495)
= Exp(1.6972)
= $5.46
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7904 + 0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1495)
= Exp(2.7553)
= $15.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7904 + 0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1495)
= Exp(2.1575)
= $8.65
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 14.24% per annum.
- COTY price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.