Kenvue Inc. (KVUE)
Kenvue Inc. is a consumer health company globally.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 7.48% per annum.
- KVUE price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $20.45 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 18.61% per annum.
- KVUE price at the close of May 8, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.02 (0.10%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KVUE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 18, 2023
End date: April 10, 2024
a = 2.9381
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0403
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 7.48%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0403) – 1
= 17.51%
September 18, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y93)
= Exp(a + b × X93 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 137 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9381 + 0.0002 × 137 + 2 × 0.0403)
= Exp(3.0458)
= $21.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y93)
= Exp(a + b × X93 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 137 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9381 + 0.0002 × 137 – 2 × 0.0403)
= Exp(2.8845)
= $17.89
April 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y234)
= Exp(a + b × X234 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 342 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9381 + 0.0002 × 342 + 2 × 0.0403)
= Exp(3.0863)
= $21.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y234)
= Exp(a + b × X234 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 342 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9381 + 0.0002 × 342 – 2 × 0.0403)
= Exp(2.9249)
= $18.63
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 7.48% per annum.
- KVUE price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $20.45 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 7, 2023
End date: May 6, 2024
a = 3.1577
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0340
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -18.61%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0340) – 1
= 14.57%
December 7, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y150)
= Exp(a + b × X150 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 217 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1577 + -0.0006 × 217 + 2 × 0.0340)
= Exp(3.1033)
= $22.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y150)
= Exp(a + b × X150 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 217 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1577 + -0.0006 × 217 – 2 × 0.0340)
= Exp(2.9673)
= $19.44
May 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y252)
= Exp(a + b × X252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 368 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1577 + -0.0006 × 368 + 2 × 0.0340)
= Exp(3.0181)
= $20.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y252)
= Exp(a + b × X252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 368 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1577 + -0.0006 × 368 – 2 × 0.0340)
= Exp(2.8821)
= $17.85
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 18.61% per annum.
- KVUE price at the close of May 8, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.02 (0.10%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.