Kenvue Inc. (KVUE)
Kenvue Inc. is a consumer health company globally.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 0.41% per annum.
- KVUE price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $18.25 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 18.20% per annum.
- KVUE price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KVUE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 7, 2023
End date: June 5, 2024
a = 2.9861
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0414
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -0.41%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0414) – 1
= 18.03%
September 7, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y86)
= Exp(a + b × X86 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 126 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9861 + 0.0000 × 126 + 2 × 0.0414)
= Exp(3.0676)
= $21.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y86)
= Exp(a + b × X86 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 126 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9861 + 0.0000 × 126 – 2 × 0.0414)
= Exp(2.9018)
= $18.21
June 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y273)
= Exp(a + b × X273 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 398 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9861 + 0.0000 × 398 + 2 × 0.0414)
= Exp(3.0646)
= $21.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y273)
= Exp(a + b × X273 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 398 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9861 + 0.0000 × 398 – 2 × 0.0414)
= Exp(2.8988)
= $18.15
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 0.41% per annum.
- KVUE price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $18.25 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 7, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 3.1567
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0343
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -18.20%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0343) – 1
= 14.72%
December 7, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y150)
= Exp(a + b × X150 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 217 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1567 + -0.0006 × 217 + 2 × 0.0343)
= Exp(3.1060)
= $22.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y150)
= Exp(a + b × X150 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 217 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1567 + -0.0006 × 217 – 2 × 0.0343)
= Exp(2.9686)
= $19.46
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y307)
= Exp(a + b × X307 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 448 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1567 + -0.0006 × 448 + 2 × 0.0343)
= Exp(2.9789)
= $19.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y307)
= Exp(a + b × X307 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 448 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1567 + -0.0006 × 448 – 2 × 0.0343)
= Exp(2.8415)
= $17.14
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 18.20% per annum.
- KVUE price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.