EPR Properties (EPR)
EPR Properties is a leading experiential net lease real estate investment trust (REIT), specializing in select and durable experimental properties in the real estate industry.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 41.18% per annum.
- EPR price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $42.57 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $26.34 (38.22%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 0.51% per annum.
- EPR price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of EPR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 12, 2020
End date: August 18, 2022
a = 2.8214
b = 0.0009
s = 0.1560
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 41.18%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1560) – 1
= 86.67%
March 12, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y205)
= Exp(a + b × X205 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 297 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8214 + 0.0009 × 297 + 2 × 0.1560)
= Exp(3.4141)
= $30.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y205)
= Exp(a + b × X205 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 297 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8214 + 0.0009 × 297 – 2 × 0.1560)
= Exp(2.7900)
= $16.28
August 18, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y819)
= Exp(a + b × X819 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,186 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8214 + 0.0009 × 1,186 + 2 × 0.1560)
= Exp(4.2541)
= $70.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y819)
= Exp(a + b × X819 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,186 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8214 + 0.0009 × 1,186 – 2 × 0.1560)
= Exp(3.6300)
= $37.71
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 41.18% per annum.
- EPR price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $42.57 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $26.34 (38.22%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 19, 2021
End date: May 17, 2024
a = 3.6789
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0874
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 0.51%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0874) – 1
= 41.85%
February 19, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y442)
= Exp(a + b × X442 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 641 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6789 + 0.0000 × 641 + 2 × 0.0874)
= Exp(3.8626)
= $47.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y442)
= Exp(a + b × X442 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 641 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6789 + 0.0000 × 641 – 2 × 0.0874)
= Exp(3.5130)
= $33.55
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6789 + 0.0000 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0874)
= Exp(3.8792)
= $48.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6789 + 0.0000 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0874)
= Exp(3.5296)
= $34.11
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 0.51% per annum.
- EPR price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.