Outfront Media Inc (OUT)
OUTFRONT harnesses the power of technology, location, and creativity to connect brands with consumers outside their homes through one of the largest and most diverse sets of billboards, public transportation, and mobile assets in North America.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 109.85% per annum.
- OUT price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $15.67 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 39.57% per annum.
- OUT price at the close of July 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.68 (12.02%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of OUT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 8, 2023
End date: May 21, 2024
a = -0.7759
b = 0.0020
s = 0.0980
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0020) – 1
= 109.85%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0980) – 1
= 48.01%
August 8, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,014)
= Exp(a + b × X1,014 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,471 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.7759 + 0.0020 × 1,471 + 2 × 0.0980)
= Exp(2.4074)
= $11.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,014)
= Exp(a + b × X1,014 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,471 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.7759 + 0.0020 × 1,471 – 2 × 0.0980)
= Exp(2.0153)
= $7.50
May 21, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,758 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.7759 + 0.0020 × 1,758 + 2 × 0.0980)
= Exp(2.9902)
= $19.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,758 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.7759 + 0.0020 × 1,758 – 2 × 0.0980)
= Exp(2.5982)
= $13.44
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 109.85% per annum.
- OUT price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $15.67 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 4, 2024
End date: July 1, 2024
a = 5.0967
b = -0.0014
s = 0.0292
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -39.57%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0292) – 1
= 12.40%
March 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,157)
= Exp(a + b × X1,157 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,680 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0967 + -0.0014 × 1,680 + 2 × 0.0292)
= Exp(2.8370)
= $17.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,157)
= Exp(a + b × X1,157 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,680 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0967 + -0.0014 × 1,680 – 2 × 0.0292)
= Exp(2.7201)
= $15.18
July 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0967 + -0.0014 × 1,799 + 2 × 0.0292)
= Exp(2.6728)
= $14.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0967 + -0.0014 × 1,799 – 2 × 0.0292)
= Exp(2.5559)
= $12.88
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 39.57% per annum.
- OUT price at the close of July 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.68 (12.02%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.