Fastenal Company (FAST)
Fastenal Company is an American company based in Winona, Minnesota. Fastenal's service model centers on approximately 3,200 in-market locations, each providing custom inventory, and a dedicated sales team to support local businesses. Fastenal offers companies supply chain solutions that help business reduce inventory touches, and supply chain waste.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 34.77% per annum.
- FAST price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $69.06 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 42.35% per annum.
- FAST price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $4.74 (7.38%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FAST price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 13, 2022
End date: May 3, 2024
a = 2.8359
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0492
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 34.77%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0492) – 1
= 21.73%
September 13, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y789)
= Exp(a + b × X789 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,145 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8359 + 0.0008 × 1,145 + 2 × 0.0492)
= Exp(3.8703)
= $47.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y789)
= Exp(a + b × X789 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,145 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8359 + 0.0008 × 1,145 – 2 × 0.0492)
= Exp(3.6736)
= $39.39
May 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,201)
= Exp(a + b × X1,201 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,743 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8359 + 0.0008 × 1,743 + 2 × 0.0492)
= Exp(4.3592)
= $78.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,201)
= Exp(a + b × X1,201 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,743 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8359 + 0.0008 × 1,743 – 2 × 0.0492)
= Exp(4.1625)
= $64.23
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 34.77% per annum.
- FAST price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $69.06 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 22, 2024
End date: July 11, 2024
a = 6.8593
b = -0.0015
s = 0.0301
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0015) – 1
= -42.35%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0301) – 1
= 12.79%
February 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,151)
= Exp(a + b × X1,151 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,672 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8593 + -0.0015 × 1,672 + 2 × 0.0301)
= Exp(4.3962)
= $81.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,151)
= Exp(a + b × X1,151 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,672 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8593 + -0.0015 × 1,672 – 2 × 0.0301)
= Exp(4.2758)
= $71.94
July 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8593 + -0.0015 × 1,812 + 2 × 0.0301)
= Exp(4.1849)
= $65.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8593 + -0.0015 × 1,812 – 2 × 0.0301)
= Exp(4.0646)
= $58.24
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 42.35% per annum.
- FAST price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $4.74 (7.38%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.