MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc (MSM)
MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc., distributes metalworking and maintenance, repair and operations (MRO) products in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and the United Kingdom. The company is headquartered in Melville, New York.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 43.10% per annum.
- MSM price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $85.66 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.90 (3.50%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 123.81% per annum.
- MSM price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MSM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 30, 2024
End date: July 15, 2024
a = 7.1739
b = -0.0015
s = 0.0314
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0015) – 1
= -43.10%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0314) – 1
= 13.39%
January 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,135)
= Exp(a + b × X1,135 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,649 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1739 + -0.0015 × 1,649 + 2 × 0.0314)
= Exp(4.6894)
= $108.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,135)
= Exp(a + b × X1,135 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,649 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1739 + -0.0015 × 1,649 – 2 × 0.0314)
= Exp(4.5637)
= $95.94
July 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,816 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1739 + -0.0015 × 1,816 + 2 × 0.0314)
= Exp(4.4314)
= $84.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,816 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1739 + -0.0015 × 1,816 – 2 × 0.0314)
= Exp(4.3058)
= $74.13
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 43.10% per annum.
- MSM price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $85.66 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.90 (3.50%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 14, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 0.3886
b = 0.0022
s = 0.0276
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0022) – 1
= 123.81%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0276) – 1
= 11.69%
June 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,230)
= Exp(a + b × X1,230 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,785 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3886 + 0.0022 × 1,785 + 2 × 0.0276)
= Exp(4.3837)
= $80.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,230)
= Exp(a + b × X1,230 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,785 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3886 + 0.0022 × 1,785 – 2 × 0.0276)
= Exp(4.2731)
= $71.75
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3886 + 0.0022 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0276)
= Exp(4.4742)
= $87.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3886 + 0.0022 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0276)
= Exp(4.3636)
= $78.54
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 123.81% per annum.
- MSM price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.