GMS Inc (GMS)
GMS Inc. distributes wall panels, suspended ceiling systems, and complementary building products in the United States and Canada. The company is headquartered in Tucker, Georgia.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 74.78% per annum.
- GMS price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $94.03 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $15.75 (14.35%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 47.58% per annum.
- GMS price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GMS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 1, 2022
End date: September 1, 2023
a = 2.0226
b = 0.0015
s = 0.0571
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 74.78%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0571) – 1
= 25.68%
September 1, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y781)
= Exp(a + b × X781 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,130 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0226 + 0.0015 × 1,130 + 2 × 0.0571)
= Exp(3.8654)
= $47.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y781)
= Exp(a + b × X781 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,130 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0226 + 0.0015 × 1,130 – 2 × 0.0571)
= Exp(3.6369)
= $37.97
September 1, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,032)
= Exp(a + b × X1,032 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,495 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0226 + 0.0015 × 1,495 + 2 × 0.0571)
= Exp(4.4237)
= $83.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,032)
= Exp(a + b × X1,032 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,495 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0226 + 0.0015 × 1,495 – 2 × 0.0571)
= Exp(4.1952)
= $66.37
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 74.78% per annum.
- GMS price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $94.03 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $15.75 (14.35%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 25, 2022
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 2.6296
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0876
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 47.58%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0876) – 1
= 41.95%
October 25, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y818)
= Exp(a + b × X818 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,184 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6296 + 0.0011 × 1,184 + 2 × 0.0876)
= Exp(4.0672)
= $58.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y818)
= Exp(a + b × X818 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,184 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6296 + 0.0011 × 1,184 – 2 × 0.0876)
= Exp(3.7169)
= $41.14
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6296 + 0.0011 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0876)
= Exp(4.7496)
= $115.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6296 + 0.0011 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0876)
= Exp(4.3993)
= $81.39
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 47.58% per annum.
- GMS price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.