Trex Company Inc (TREX)
Trex Company, Inc. is a leading manufacturer and distributor of wood-plastic composite products, specializing in innovative decking and railing solutions designed for residential applications. Headquartered in Winchester, Virginia, Trex leverages sustainable practices in its production processes, appealing to environmentally conscious consumers. With a strong commitment to quality and durability, the company has established itself as a trusted brand in the growing outdoor living space market, positioning itself for continued growth amidst increasing demand for low-maintenance and eco-friendly building materials.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 31.68% per annum.
- TREX price at the close of October 21, 2025 was $51.32 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 13.36% per annum.
- TREX price at the close of October 21, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TREX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 29, 2024
End date: July 8, 2025
a = 5.7869
b = -0.0010
s = 0.0854
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -31.68%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0854) – 1
= 40.72%
January 29, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y820)
= Exp(a + b × X820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,194 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7869 + -0.0010 × 1,194 + 2 × 0.0854)
= Exp(4.7116)
= $111.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y820)
= Exp(a + b × X820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,194 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7869 + -0.0010 × 1,194 – 2 × 0.0854)
= Exp(4.3699)
= $79.04
July 8, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,180)
= Exp(a + b × X1,180 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,720 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7869 + -0.0010 × 1,720 + 2 × 0.0854)
= Exp(4.1626)
= $64.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,180)
= Exp(a + b × X1,180 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,720 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7869 + -0.0010 × 1,720 – 2 × 0.0854)
= Exp(3.8210)
= $45.65
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 31.68% per annum.
- TREX price at the close of October 21, 2025 was $51.32 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 7, 2024
End date: September 16, 2025
a = 4.7754
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0866
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -13.36%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0866) – 1
= 41.38%
August 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y952)
= Exp(a + b × X952 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,385 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7754 + -0.0004 × 1,385 + 2 × 0.0866)
= Exp(4.4043)
= $81.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y952)
= Exp(a + b × X952 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,385 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7754 + -0.0004 × 1,385 – 2 × 0.0866)
= Exp(4.0580)
= $57.86
September 16, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,229)
= Exp(a + b × X1,229 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,790 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7754 + -0.0004 × 1,790 + 2 × 0.0866)
= Exp(4.2451)
= $69.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,229)
= Exp(a + b × X1,229 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,790 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7754 + -0.0004 × 1,790 – 2 × 0.0866)
= Exp(3.8988)
= $49.34
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 13.36% per annum.
- TREX price at the close of October 21, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.