Quanex Building Products (NX)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 44.21% per annum.
- NX price at the close of June 13, 2025 was $19.31 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 63.68% per annum.
- NX price at the close of June 13, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.97 (5.29%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 22, 2024
End date: June 13, 2025
a = 5.7904
b = -0.0016
s = 0.0957
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -44.21%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0957) – 1
= 46.61%
February 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y928)
= Exp(a + b × X928 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,347 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7904 + -0.0016 × 1,347 + 2 × 0.0957)
= Exp(3.8282)
= $45.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y928)
= Exp(a + b × X928 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,347 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7904 + -0.0016 × 1,347 – 2 × 0.0957)
= Exp(3.4456)
= $31.36
June 13, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7904 + -0.0016 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0957)
= Exp(3.0657)
= $21.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7904 + -0.0016 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0957)
= Exp(2.6830)
= $14.63
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 44.21% per annum.
- NX price at the close of June 13, 2025 was $19.31 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 14, 2024
End date: June 13, 2025
a = 7.8160
b = -0.0028
s = 0.0772
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0028) – 1
= -63.68%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0772) – 1
= 36.16%
October 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,090)
= Exp(a + b × X1,090 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,582 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8160 + -0.0028 × 1,582 + 2 × 0.0772)
= Exp(3.5806)
= $35.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,090)
= Exp(a + b × X1,090 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,582 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8160 + -0.0028 × 1,582 – 2 × 0.0772)
= Exp(3.2719)
= $26.36
June 13, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8160 + -0.0028 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0772)
= Exp(2.9091)
= $18.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8160 + -0.0028 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0772)
= Exp(2.6004)
= $13.47
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 63.68% per annum.
- NX price at the close of June 13, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.97 (5.29%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.