Quanex Building Products (NX)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 67.40% per annum.
- NX price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $33.19 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.21 (18.62%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 10,404.66% per annum.
- NX price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 15, 2024
End date: July 15, 2024
a = 8.8723
b = -0.0031
s = 0.0332
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0031) – 1
= -67.40%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0332) – 1
= 14.21%
March 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,167)
= Exp(a + b × X1,167 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,694 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.8723 + -0.0031 × 1,694 + 2 × 0.0332)
= Exp(3.7368)
= $41.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,167)
= Exp(a + b × X1,167 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,694 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.8723 + -0.0031 × 1,694 – 2 × 0.0332)
= Exp(3.6039)
= $36.74
July 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,816 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.8723 + -0.0031 × 1,816 + 2 × 0.0332)
= Exp(3.3622)
= $28.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,816 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.8723 + -0.0031 × 1,816 – 2 × 0.0332)
= Exp(3.2293)
= $25.26
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 67.40% per annum.
- NX price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $33.19 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.21 (18.62%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 5, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = -19.7831
b = 0.0128
s = 0.0297
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0128) – 1
= 10,404.66%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0297) – 1
= 12.61%
July 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-19.7831 + 0.0128 × 1,806 + 2 × 0.0297)
= Exp(3.3060)
= $27.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-19.7831 + 0.0128 × 1,806 – 2 × 0.0297)
= Exp(3.1872)
= $24.22
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-19.7831 + 0.0128 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0297)
= Exp(3.5610)
= $35.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-19.7831 + 0.0128 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0297)
= Exp(3.4422)
= $31.26
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 10,404.66% per annum.
- NX price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.