Masco Corporation (MAS)
Masco Corporation is a manufacturer of products for the home improvement and new home construction markets.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 32.39% per annum.
- MAS price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $75.84 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 24.37% per annum.
- MAS price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $3.43 (4.74%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MAS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 14, 2022
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 2.9017
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0718
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 32.39%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0718) – 1
= 33.29%
September 14, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y790)
= Exp(a + b × X790 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,146 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9017 + 0.0008 × 1,146 + 2 × 0.0718)
= Exp(3.9263)
= $50.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y790)
= Exp(a + b × X790 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,146 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9017 + 0.0008 × 1,146 – 2 × 0.0718)
= Exp(3.6390)
= $38.05
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9017 + 0.0008 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0718)
= Exp(4.4491)
= $85.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9017 + 0.0008 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0718)
= Exp(4.1617)
= $64.18
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 32.39% per annum.
- MAS price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $75.84 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 14, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 5.6050
b = -0.0008
s = 0.0373
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -24.37%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0373) – 1
= 16.08%
February 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,146)
= Exp(a + b × X1,146 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,664 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6050 + -0.0008 × 1,664 + 2 × 0.0373)
= Exp(4.4063)
= $81.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,146)
= Exp(a + b × X1,146 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,664 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6050 + -0.0008 × 1,664 – 2 × 0.0373)
= Exp(4.2572)
= $70.61
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6050 + -0.0008 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0373)
= Exp(4.2823)
= $72.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6050 + -0.0008 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0373)
= Exp(4.1332)
= $62.38
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 24.37% per annum.
- MAS price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $3.43 (4.74%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.