Stock Price Trends

Masco Corporation (MAS)

Masco Corporation is a manufacturer of products for the home improvement and new home construction markets.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 28.73% per annum.
  • MAS price at the close of August 15, 2025 was $73.52 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $6.57 (9.81%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 49.46% per annum.
  • MAS price at the close of August 15, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.03 (0.05%).
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MAS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: August 21, 2024
End date: July 21, 2025

a = 5.7891

b = -0.0009

s = 0.0539

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -28.73%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0539) – 1
= 24.05%

August 21, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,009)
= Exp(a + b × X1,009 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,465 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7891 + -0.0009 × 1,465 + 2 × 0.0539)
= Exp(4.5371)
= $93.42

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,009)
= Exp(a + b × X1,009 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,465 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7891 + -0.0009 × 1,465 – 2 × 0.0539)
= Exp(4.3216)
= $75.31

July 21, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,236)
= Exp(a + b × X1,236 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7891 + -0.0009 × 1,799 + 2 × 0.0539)
= Exp(4.2272)
= $68.52

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,236)
= Exp(a + b × X1,236 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7891 + -0.0009 × 1,799 – 2 × 0.0539)
= Exp(4.0116)
= $55.24

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 28.73% per annum.
  • MAS price at the close of August 15, 2025 was $73.52 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $6.57 (9.81%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 7, 2025
End date: August 15, 2025

a = 2.2235

b = 0.0011

s = 0.0327

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 49.46%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0327) – 1
= 13.98%

April 7, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,165)
= Exp(a + b × X1,165 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,694 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2235 + 0.0011 × 1,694 + 2 × 0.0327)
= Exp(4.1540)
= $63.69

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,165)
= Exp(a + b × X1,165 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,694 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2235 + 0.0011 × 1,694 – 2 × 0.0327)
= Exp(4.0231)
= $55.87

August 15, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2235 + 0.0011 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0327)
= Exp(4.2971)
= $73.49

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2235 + 0.0011 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0327)
= Exp(4.1662)
= $64.47

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 49.46% per annum.
  • MAS price at the close of August 15, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.03 (0.05%).